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China Musings 中国随笔
Catching the accelerating Southbound train
搭乘南下疾驰的列车
27 April 2025 | 8:11PM HKT | Research | Portfolio Strategy
2025年4月27日 | 晚上8:11（香港时间）| 研究报告 | 投资组合策略| By Si Fu, Ph.D. and others
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Southbound flows had the strongest start of the year and became the key capital sponsor for H shares. Despite concerns about elevated US tariffs and ADR de-listing risks, Southbound investors had US$78bn net buying ytd, 75% of the full-year inflows in 2024. Buying of AI Tech and high dividend yield stocks contributed US$29bn and US$22bn, about 65% of ytd Southbound inflows.
南向资金迎来年内最强劲开局，成为支撑H股的关键资本来源。尽管市场对美国关税上调及ADR退市风险有所担忧，但南向投资者年内净买入额已达780亿美元，占2024年全年预期流入量的75%。其中，人工智能科技股和高股息率股票分别贡献了290亿美元和220亿美元，合计约占南向资金年内流入总额的65%。
Southbound ownership and turnover contribution continue rising. Southbound investors hold US$577bn of HK-listed stocks, accounting for 13% of the listed market cap of Southbound eligible stocks (v.s. 10% a year ago). Their turnover contribution rose from 17% in 2024 to 21% ytd on average. The performance of Hong Kong market has become more closely correlated with Southbound flows, which suggests growing pricing power of Southbound investors.
南向资金持股量及成交贡献持续攀升。南向投资者持有港股市场股票达5770亿美元，占南向可投资股票总市值的13%（较一年前的10%有所提升）。其成交贡献率从2024年的17%平均上升至目前的21%。香港市场的表现与南向资金流动的关联度日益紧密，显示出南向投资者定价能力的增强。
Who's buying? Both onshore retail (with account balance > RMB500k) and institutional investors can buy eligible HK-listed stocks and ETFs through Southbound. Based on disclosed holdings, we estimate that institutional investors account for at least half of Southbound ownership, and could be the major flow contributor year-to-date.
谁在购买？无论是账户余额超过50万元人民币的境内散户，还是机构投资者，均可通过南向通购买符合条件的香港上市股票及交易所交易基金（ETF）。根据已披露的持仓数据，我们估算机构投资者至少占据了南向持仓的一半份额，且今年以来可能成为主要的资金流入贡献者。
We raise our 2025 Southbound flow forecast from US$75bn to US$110bn to incorporate factors that could support Southbound flows incrementally, including 1) acceleration of capital sponsorship shift amid concerns about potential decoupling risks; 2) more attractive H-share profiles in terms of earnings growth, valuation and dividend yield; 3) expanded investable universe with more newly listed and home-coming companies; and 4) hedging demand for potential RMB depreciation due to elevated trade tensions.
我们将2025年南向资金流量预测从750亿美元上调至1100亿美元，以纳入可能支持南向资金逐步增长的因素，包括：1）在潜在脱钩风险担忧下，资本赞助转移加速；2）H股在盈利增长、估值和股息收益率方面更具吸引力；3）随着更多新上市公司和回归企业，可投资范围扩大；4）因贸易紧张局势升级，对人民币潜在贬值的避险需求。
What to buy? We refresh our Southbound Favorite Portfolio, and screen for 50 companies with scarcity value, valuation discounts (to A shares), price sensitivity to Southbound flows, Southbound ownership and turnover representation. We expect them to outperform if Southbound flows stay strong. Additionally, we screen for 33 ADRs that are eligible for HK dual-primary listing, including secondary listing ones that could convert to dual-primary listing, and US-listed ones that meet Hong Kong dual-primary listing requirements. Southbound buying after inclusion may support their performance.
购买什么？我们更新了南向优选投资组合，筛选出50家具备稀缺价值、估值折让（相对于A股）、对南向资金流动价格敏感、南向持股及换手率代表性的公司。我们预计，若南向资金持续强劲，这些公司将表现优异。此外，我们还筛选出33只符合香港双重主要上市条件的ADR，包括可转换为双重主要上市的二次上市股票，以及满足香港双重主要上市要求的美国上市股票。纳入后南向资金的买入可能支撑其表现。

Southbound montage 南行剪辑

H shares (HSCEI) gained 10% ytd on the back of record-high Southbound net buying. Onshore investors have net bought US$78bn Southbound stocks ytd, which is the largest ytd buying up to April, and exceeds full-year inflows in most years only except 2024 (US$103bn) and 2020 (US$87bn).
H股（恒生中国企业指数）今年以来上涨10%，得益于创纪录的南向资金净买入。截至4月，内地投资者年内累计净买入南向股票达780亿美元，创下同期最高纪录，且超过了除2024年（1030亿美元）和2020年（870亿美元）之外大多数年份的全年流入量。
Key drivers for the significant Southbound inflows include: a) domestic investors bought the dip after Tencent was added to the Chinese Military Company List by the US and corrected; b) since the launch of DeepSeek model, AI optimism led to strong demand for AI Tech stocks; and c) stocks with high and secure shareholder returns are favored as economic uncertainties are high and domestic rates are falling. Respectively, Tencent, AI Tech stocks (excluding Tencent), and high dividend yield stocks had US$8bn, US$21bn and US$22bn Southbound buying, accounting for 65% of total inflows.
南向资金大幅流入的关键驱动因素包括：a) 腾讯被美国列入中国军方公司名单后股价回调，国内投资者趁机抄底；b) 自深度求索模型推出以来，人工智能乐观情绪带动了对AI科技股的强劲需求；c) 在经济不确定性高企、国内利率下降的背景下，高且稳定的股东回报股票受到青睐。其中，腾讯、AI科技股（不含腾讯）和高股息率股票分别录得80亿美元、210亿美元和220亿美元的南向买入，合计占资金总流入的65%。
Southbound flows have become more influential to the Hong Kong market, in terms of ownership, turnover and pricing power. Currently, Southbound investors hold US$577bn of HK-listed stocks, accounting for 13% of the listed market cap of Southbound eligible stocks (v.s. 10% a year ago). In terms of market turnover, Southbound investors contribute 21% ytd, rising from 17% on average in 2024. HK market performance, proxied by returns of HSCI, has become more correlated with Southbound flows, which indicates growing pricing power of Southbound investors.
南向资金对香港市场的影响力在所有权、成交额及定价权方面均有所增强。目前，南向投资者持有价值5770亿美元的香港上市股票，占南向可投资股票总市值的13%（一年前为10%）。在市场成交方面，南向投资者今年贡献了21%的成交额，较2024年平均17%的水平有所上升。以恒生中国企业指数（HSCI）回报率作为香港市场表现的代理指标，其与南向资金流动的相关性日益增强，显示出南向投资者定价能力的提升。
By sector, Southbound ownership is high in Internet and Financial sectors, and by stock, Alibaba, Tencent, and China Mobile had the highest Southbound buying ytd. This suggests that the scarcity value and shareholder returns remain as the key investor considerations.
按行业划分，南向资金在互联网和金融领域持股比例较高，按个股来看，阿里巴巴、腾讯和中国移动是今年以来南向资金买入最多的股票。这表明稀缺价值和股东回报仍然是投资者考虑的关键因素。

Exhibit 1: Southbound flows made the strongest start of a year in history
展品1：南向资金流创下有史以来年度最强劲开局

1. Southbound flows made the strongest start of a year in history. Data available on request.
Source: Wind, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源：万得资讯、FactSet、高盛全球投资研究

Exhibit 2: Buying of Tencent, AI Tech and high dividend yield stocks are the key contributors to Southbound inflows ytd
展品2：腾讯、人工智能科技及高股息率股票是今年南向资金流入的主要推动力

2. Buying of Tencent, AI Tech and high dividend yield stocks are the key contributors to Southbound inflows ytd. Data available on request.
Source: Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源：万得资讯，高盛全球投资研究

Exhibit 3: Representation of Southbound investors in the HK market has been steadily rising
图表3：南向投资者在香港市场的占比持续上升

3. Representation of Southbound investors in the HK market has been steadily rising. Data available on request.
Source: HKEX, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源：香港交易所，彭博社，高盛全球投资研究

Exhibit 4: Pricing power of Southbound flows has been rising
展品4：南向资金定价能力持续提升

4. Pricing power of Southbound flows has been rising. Data available on request.
Source: Wind, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 

Exhibit 5: Southbound aggregate holdings are highly concentrated in Internet and Financial sectors
展品5：南向资金持仓高度集中于互联网及金融领域

5. Southbound aggregate holdings are highly concentrated in Internet and Financial sectors. Data available on request.
Source: Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源：万得资讯，高盛全球投资研究

Exhibit 6: Alibaba, Tencent, and China Mobile had the highest Southbound buying ytd
展品6：阿里巴巴、腾讯及中国移动为今年迄今南向资金买入最多的股票

6. Alibaba, Tencent, and China Mobile had the highest Southbound buying ytd. Data available on request.
Source: FactSet, Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源：FactSet、万得、高盛全球投资研究

Who's buying? 谁在购买？

Both onshore retail (with account balance > RMB500k) and institutional investors can trade eligible HK-listed stocks and ETFs through Southbound. Without direct disclosure of the breakdown by type of investors, we estimate that institutional investors may account for at least half of the Southbound holdings.
在岸零售投资者（账户余额超过50万元人民币）及机构投资者均可通过南向通交易符合条件的香港上市股票及交易所交易基金（ETF）。尽管未直接披露各类投资者的持仓明细，我们推测机构投资者可能至少占据南向持仓的一半。
We consider Southbound holdings of three major types of investors -- domestic mutual funds, hedge funds and pension funds/insurance companies.
我们考虑了三类主要投资者的南向持股情况——国内共同基金、对冲基金以及养老基金/保险公司。

  • About domestic mutual funds, regulations require funds with "HK-listed equities" (港股) in the name to allocate more than 80% of non-cash fund assets in HK-listed stocks. Other funds should have no more than 50% of equity assets in HK. Based on funds which disclosed their asset allocation breakdown (~20% of total AUM), the HK focused funds allocate 84% of AUM in HK-listed stocks and other funds allocate 28%. The total disclosed HK holdings account for 8% of total AUM of all funds. If we assume all domestic mutual funds allocate ~20% of AUM in HK, they may hold around US$215bn HK-listed stocks, accounting for ~35% of total Southbound holdings (US$610bn).
    关于国内互惠基金，监管规定要求名称中含有“港股”的基金需将不低于80%的非现金基金资产投资于香港上市股票。其他基金则应将不超过50%的股票资产配置于香港市场。根据已披露资产配置明细的基金（约占总资产管理规模AUM的20%），专注香港市场的基金将84%的AUM投向香港上市股票，而其他基金则配置了28%。已披露的香港持仓合计占所有基金总AUM的8%。若假设所有国内互惠基金将约20%的AUM配置于香港市场，则它们可能持有约2150亿美元的香港上市股票，占南向总持仓（6100亿美元）的约35%。

  • If we assume domestic hedge funds and PE funds have the same onshore and offshore split as mutual funds, i.e. 20% in H shares and 80% in A shares, they may hold around US$70bn HK-listed stocks, accounting for about 10% of total Southbound holdings.
    若假设国内对冲基金与私募基金和公募基金一样，其境内境外配置比例相同，即20%投资于H股，80%投资于A股，那么它们可能持有约700亿美元的港股上市股票，占南向总持仓的约10%。

  • Domestic pension funds and insurance companies have around RMB6.5tn AUM with around 10-15% equity allocation. Assuming 20% of their equity investment is in HK, we estimate they may hold around US$20bn HK stocks, equivalent to 3% of Southbound holdings.
    国内养老基金及保险公司管理的资产规模约为6.5万亿元人民币，其中股票配置比例约为10-15%。假设其股票投资中20%投向香港市场，我们估算其持有的港股规模可能达到约200亿美元，相当于南向资金持仓的3%。

Buying of domestic institutional investors could be the major contributor to the year-to-date Southbound inflows. Domestic mutual funds have raised their equity allocation to a historical high level, while retail sentiment remained muted. Our A-share Retail Sentiment Barometer (+0.3 s.d.) remains around mid-cycle level. Capital raised by domestic mutual funds remain limited.
内地机构投资者的买入可能是年初至今南向资金流入的主要推动力。内地公募基金已将股票配置提升至历史高位，而散户情绪依旧低迷。我们的A股散户情绪指标（+0.3个标准差）仍处于周期中段水平。内地公募基金募集的资金依然有限。

Exhibit 7: Funds with "HK-listed equities" (港股) in the name to allocate more than 80% of non-cash fund assets in HK-listed stocks; while other funds should have no more than 50% of equity assets in HK-listed stocks
展品7：名称中包含“港股”的基金应将非现金基金资产的80%以上配置于香港上市股票；其他基金则应将香港上市股票的权益资产比例控制在50%以内

7. Funds with "HK-listed equities" (港股) in the name to allocate more than 80% of non-cash fund assets in HK-listed stocks; while other funds should have no more than 50% of equity assets in HK-listed stocks. Data available on request.
Source: Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源：万得资讯，高盛全球投资研究

Exhibit 8: Disclosed HK allocation accounts for 8% of the AUM of all domestic mutual funds, including ones without allocation disclosure
展品8：已披露的香港配置占所有国内公募基金资产总额的8%，其中包括未披露配置情况的基金

8. Disclosed HK allocation accounts for 8% of the AUM of all domestic mutual funds, including ones without allocation disclosure. Data available on request.
Source: Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源：万得资讯，高盛全球投资研究

Exhibit 9: Domestic mutual funds have raised their equity allocation to historical highs
展品9：国内共同基金已将股票配置提升至历史新高

9. Domestic mutual funds have raised their equity allocation to historical highs. Data available on request.
Source: Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源：万得资讯，高盛全球投资研究

Exhibit 10: Stronger new capital raising by domestic mutual funds could boost Southbound buying
展品10：国内共同基金更强劲的新资金募集可能推动南向资金买入

10. Stronger new capital raising by domestic mutual funds could boost Southbound buying. Data available on request.
Source: Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
来源：万得资讯，高盛全球投资研究

Revising up our Southbound net buying estimate to US$110bn for 2025
将我们2025年南向净买入预测上调至1100亿美元

In our 2025 Outlook, we forecast another strong year of US$75bn of Southbound net inflows after a record year in 2024 (US$104bn), underpinned by further expansion of the Southbound universe on more dual-primary listing inclusions and attractive H-share valuation and dividend yields. Year-to-date Southbound inflows significantly beat our expectation as unexpected macro and micro developments brought higher demands for related H shares, including Internet and high dividend yield stocks.
在我们的2025展望中，我们预测在2024年创下历史新高（1040亿美元）后，南向净流入将迎来又一个强劲年份，达到750亿美元，这得益于南向投资范围的进一步扩大，包括更多双重主要上市公司的纳入，以及具有吸引力的H股估值和股息收益率。今年以来，南向资金流入显著超出我们的预期，意外的宏观和微观发展带来了对相关H股（包括互联网和高股息收益率股票）更高的需求。
We revise up our forecast to US$110bn to factor in drivers for incremental Southbound inflows.
我们将预测上调至1100亿美元，以纳入推动南向资金净流入的因素。

  1. Strong Southbound buying in 2024 and 2025 ytd suggests acceleration of the capital sponsorship shift in HK. Concerns about regulatory and geopolitical risks constrained foreign investors' allocation in China, while domestic investors continue expanding their cross-border asset allocation. Southbound ownership (as % of HKEX total market cap) increased by 1.1% in 2024 (v.s. less than 1.0% annually in the past 3 years). Hence, we factor in higher trend growth for Southbound flows, to contribute US$76bn to Southbound flows in 2025E based on our estimation.
    2024年至2025年迄今为止，强劲的南向资金买入显示出香港资本赞助格局的加速转变。监管及地缘政治风险担忧限制了外资对中国市场的配置，而内地投资者则持续扩大其跨境资产配置。南向资金持股比例（占香港交易所总市值的百分比）在2024年上升了1.1%（过去三年年均增幅不足1.0%）。因此，我们考虑南向资金流动趋势增长率的提升，预计2025年南向资金流入将达到760亿美元，基于我们的估算。

  2. When comparing A shares and H shares in terms of earnings growth, valuation and dividend yields, H shares look more attractive and lead to potential Southbound buying interest. Advancements in AI development could enhance the earnings growth potential for AI technology stocks. In a low interest rate environment, domestic asset allocators maintain the demand for stable shareholder returns. Prevailing macroeconomic uncertainties result in a preference for defensive assets. Consequently, offshore stocks offering high dividend yields and trading at a discount compared to onshore counterparts are likely to continue attracting Southbound inflows. We estimate this could contribute approximately US$15bn to Southbound buying. 

  3. Listing activity has become more active in the Hong Kong market this year. We expect concerns about potential ADR delisting risks could accelerate the home-coming progress of large US-listed Chinese companies. Alibaba has obtained US$20bn Southbound buying after converting to dual-primary listing, which set a good example for other secondary listing companies. Assuming other eligible HK secondary listing companies could follow the trajectory, convert to dual-primary listing, and then be included in Southbound, we estimate this may bring US$17bn additional Southbound buying.
    今年香港市场的上市活动愈发活跃。我们预计，市场对潜在ADR退市风险的担忧，或将加速大型中概股回流进程。阿里巴巴在转为双重主要上市后，获得了200亿美元的南向资金买入，为其他二次上市公司树立了良好榜样。假设其他符合条件的香港二次上市公司也循此路径，转为双重主要上市并纳入南向通，我们估算这可能带来额外170亿美元的南向资金流入。

  4. We expect FX hedging demand could modestly contribute US$2bn additional Southbound buying. When investors have RMB depreciation expectation, Southbound flows tend to be stronger.
    我们预计外汇对冲需求可能适度贡献20亿美元的额外南向购买。当投资者对人民币贬值有预期时，南向资金流动往往更为强劲。

Incorporating these factors, our full-year Southbound flows forecast is boosted from US$75bn to US$110bn, implying US$32bn of aggregate net buying for the remainder of 2025. Southbound ownership in eligible stocks would increase to 15% by end-25, from 13% now. Our empirical analysis based on historical data suggests that the potential Southbound flows for the remainder of 2025 could support 7% further upside for MSCI China, consistent with what our index target (75 for MSCI China) implies. Northbound flows remained muted ytd with US$0.5bn net outflows in 1Q, with strong inflows to Tech and Industrials offset by foreign selling in Utilities and Energy. We maintain US$15bn Northbound net buying forecast for 2025.
Several factors could positively influence our flow forecast. Enhanced engagement from domestic retail investors might contribute additional Southbound purchasing power. Potential dividend tax exemption for Southbound investors could improve the attractiveness of high dividend stocks. Bloomberg reported in May 2024 that China is considering abolishing the 20% dividend tax on dividend income from Hong Kong-listed stocks levied on Chinese individual investors. We estimate if dividend tax is exempted for Southbound investors, it may boost their returns by around US$3bn annually, which could make H shares more favorable to Southbound investors.
A potential downside risk arises if tensions between the US and China escalate, leading to concerns about potential correction of offshore markets. In such a scenario, investors may prefer the more insulated A-share market tactically, prompting capital to return onshore and resulting in tempered Southbound buying in the short term.

Exhibit 11: We revise up our full year Southbound net buying forecast from US$75bn to US$110bn

11. We revise up our full year Southbound net buying forecast from US$75bn to US$110bn. Data available on request.
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 12: We forecast another strong year of Southbound net inflows

12. We forecast another strong year of Southbound net inflows. Data available on request.
Source: Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

What to buy?

To capitalize on the strong Southbound flows, we refresh our Southbound Favorite portfolio which includes 50 stocks that a) possess scarcity value in the Southbound universe; b) trade at valuation discounts to their A-share peers; c) have exhibited relatively high return beta to Southbound flows; d) have high Southbound ownership (as % of freefloat market cap); and, e) are most actively traded by Southbound investors, to better express ones' views on cyclical Southbound momentum. The portfolio has 22% of Southbound ownership (as % of freefloat market cap) and 59% of Southbound flows representation ytd, trades at 11.8x 2025E P/E, and offers 10% EPS CAGR for 2024-2026E.
With escalated concerns about ADR de-listing risks, we expect eligible ADRs may accelerate home-coming process to reduce the potential liquidity shock if they are forced to de-list from the US exchanges. A major benefit from a company to pursue (dual) primary listing in HK is accessing Southbound liquidity. We screen for HK secondary listing stocks and US-listed ADRs which could be eligible for HK dual-primary listing with potential to be included in Southbound universe. Investors could watch for potential Southbound inclusion of these stocks. Southbound buying after inclusion may lead to outperformance of the stocks newly added to the investable universe.

Exhibit 13: We refresh our Southbound Favorite Portfolio and these stocks may outperform the benchmark if Southbound flows stay elevated

13. We refresh our Southbound Favorite Portfolio and these stocks may outperform the benchmark if Southbound flows stay elevated. Data available on request.
Source: Wind, FactSet, IBES, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Exhibit 14: We screen for HK secondary listing stocks and US-listed ADRs which could be eligible for HK dual-primary listing with potential to be included in Southbound universe

14. We screen for HK secondary listing stocks and US-listed ADRs which could be eligible for HK dual-primary listing with potential to be included in Southbound universe. Data available on request.
Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html.

+852 2978-0200
si.fu@gs.com
Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司
+852 2978-1224
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Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
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