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SALES COMMENTARY -- Not a product of MS Research and should not be regarded as a research report | FOR INSTITUTIONAL DISTRIBUTION ONLY
销售评论 -- 不是 MS 研究的产品，不应视为研究报告 | 仅供机构分发

TODAY  今天

- MS Software Outlook:  Navigating the GenAI Straits with Keith Weiss, Sanjit Singh, Josh Baer, Chris Quintero at 11ET (stream)
- MS 软件展望：与 Keith Weiss、Sanjit Singh、Josh Baer、Chris Quintero 在 11ET（直播）一起导航 GenAI 海峡

new events  新事件

- MS Security Dinner:  Morgan Stanley Head of Cybersecurity Innovation & Partnerships dinner hosted by Hamza Fodderwala January 27 at 6pmET
- 摩根士丹利网络安全创新与合作负责人晚宴：由 Hamza Fodderwala 主办，时间为 1 月 27 日东部时间下午 6 点

• TODAY:   AAPL premieres Severance S2; SATURDAY:  Dave Chappelle hosts SNL
  今天：AAPL 首播《离职》第二季；星期六：戴夫·查普尔主持《周六夜现场》

• The SPX is on track for the best week since the election following CPI + rates relief.    All 11 sectors traded higher with MSXXUTIL +2.5% leading and MSXXTECH +11bps lagging with weakness in AAPL -4% post TSMC 1Q smartphone guidance and 3P China data, while Semicap squeeze on TSMC capex guide caused an unwind in Semis
  SPX 有望在 CPI 和利率缓解后迎来自选举以来的最佳一周。所有 11 个行业均上涨，其中 MSXXUTIL 上涨 2.5%，而 MSXXTECH 上涨 11 个基点滞后，AAPL 在 TSMC 第一季度智能手机指引和第三方中国数据发布后下跌 4%。同时，TSMC 资本支出指引的半导体紧缩导致半导体股回落。

• @realDonaldTrump:  ‘I just spoke to Chairman Xi Jinping of China. The call was a very good one for both China and the U.S.A. It is my expectation that we will solve many problems together, and starting immediately. We discussed balancing Trade, Fentanyl, TikTok, and many other subjects. President Xi and I will do everything possible to make the World more peaceful and safe!’
  @realDonaldTrump: ‘我刚刚与中国国家主席习近平通了电话。这次通话对中国和美国都是非常好的。我期待我们将共同解决许多问题，并立即开始。我们讨论了贸易平衡、芬太尼、TikTok 以及许多其他议题。习主席和我将尽一切可能让世界更加和平与安全！’

• TikTok:  SCOTUS upholds TikTok divest-or-ban law but this may not matter anymore with Biden kicking enforcement to Trump and Trump planning an Executive Order to extend the deadline 60-90 days.  A Biden official said ‘TikTok users should not expect an immediate shutdown on Sunday.’ | Reuters
  抖音：最高法院维持抖音剥离或禁令法，但这可能不再重要，因为拜登将执法权交给特朗普，而特朗普计划签署行政命令将截止日期延长 60-90 天。一位拜登官员表示：“抖音用户不应期待周日立即关闭。” | 路透社

• Crypto:    BTC $104K as Trump reportedly plans to release an EO elevating crypto as a policy priority. ‘Also under consideration is the creation of a national Bitcoin stockpile, which would encompass the government’s existing holdings of the world’s biggest cryptocurrency ... The US government currently holds nearly $20B worth of Bitcoin, confiscated as part of various investigations. | Bloomberg
  加密货币：BTC $104K，因特朗普据报道计划发布一项行政命令，将加密货币提升为政策优先事项。“还在考虑创建一个国家比特币储备，这将包括政府现有的世界最大加密货币的持有量……美国政府目前持有近 200 亿美元的比特币，这些比特币是作为各种调查的一部分被没收的。” | 彭博社

• INTC +7% as well-known industry blog SemiAccurate reports on a potential acquisition. | SemiAccurate
  INTC +7%，知名行业博客 SemiAccurate 报道潜在收购。| SemiAccurate

• Bob Dylan joins TikTok days before potential ban. | Stereogum
  鲍勃·迪伦在潜在禁令前几天加入 TikTok。 | Stereogum

EARNINGS  收益

• WDC pre-announced 4Q results at the low end of guidance, but consistent with December commentary on weaker NAND pricing.  Investors are braced for weak 1Q guide on the full report and the CFO departure is a surprise, but the separation is on track and reports suggest both Samsung & SK Hynix cutting NAND production ~10%, along with NAND chipmakers holding pricing post CNY. | MSR, TheElec, Digitimes
  WDC 预先公布了第四季度业绩，处于指导范围的低端，但与 12 月关于 NAND 价格疲软的评论一致。投资者预计在完整报告中会有疲软的第一季度指引，首席财务官的离职令人惊讶，但分离进展顺利，报告显示三星和 SK 海力士都在削减约 10%的 NAND 产量，同时 NAND 芯片制造商在春节后保持价格稳定。| MSR, TheElec, Digitimes

• WIT 3Q beat slightly above the top end of guide while F4Q(Mar) guide at flat q/q is inline with estimates. Growth was driven largely by Healthcare vertical while key verticals like BFSI and Consumer showed a decline q/q surprisingly. In terms of geos Americas 1 led growth (+3.9% qoq). | Gaurav Rateria
  WIT 第三季度的业绩略高于指导范围的上限，而 F4Q（3 月）的指导持平于环比，与预期一致。增长主要由医疗保健行业推动，而 BFSI 和消费品等关键行业环比意外出现下降。在地区方面，美洲 1 的增长领先（环比增长 3.9%）。| Gaurav Rateria

MS TMT EARNINGS CALENDAR – Jan 29 the biggest night, no AMZN date yet
MS TMT 盈利日历 - 1 月 29 日是最大的一晚，尚无 AMZN 日期

Jan 21:   NFLX STX UMC* EDU*
1 月 21 日： NFLX STX UMC* EDU*

Jan 22:   APH* GEV*  1 月 22 日： APH* GEV*

Jan 23:   TXN SK Hynix* Disco*
2023 年 1 月 23 日：TXN SK 海力士* Disco*

Jan 24:   ERIC* VZ*  1 月 24 日：ERIC* VZ*

Jan 27:   T* SANM  1 月 27 日： T* SANM

Jan 28:   SAP FFIV LOGI* QRVO MANH CVLT*
1 月 28 日： SAP FFIV LOGI* QRVO MANH CVLT*

Jan 29:   META MSFT TSLA NOW IBM ASML* LRCX WDC GLW* CLS TER TMUS* ADP* FLEX AVT* WOLF CALX MXL Advantest*
1 月 29 日：META MSFT TSLA NOW IBM ASML* LRCX WDC GLW* CLS TER TMUS* ADP* FLEX AVT* WOLF CALX MXL Advantest*

Jan 30:   AAPL MA* V INTC TEAM KLAC DT* CMCSA* STM* CHKP* NOK* MBLY* VIAV GEN ALGM*
1 月 30 日： AAPL MA* V INTC TEAM KLAC DT* CMCSA* STM* CHKP* NOK* MBLY* VIAV GEN ALGM*

Jan 31:   Samsung CHTR*  1 月 31 日：三星 CHTR*

Feb 3:   PLTR NXPI FN RMBS Murata*
2 月 3 日： PLTR NXPI FN RMBS 村田*

Feb 4:   GOOGL AMD SNAP PYPL* SPOT* EA MTCH VRNS DXC KD* CRUS ATEN
2 月 4 日： GOOGL AMD SNAP PYPL* SPOT* EA MTCH VRNS DXC KD* CRUS ATEN

Feb 5:   UBER* ARM QCOM DIS* CTSH DAY* JNPR FI SIMO* VSH* PTC PYCR NTGR
2 月 5 日： UBER* ARM QCOM DIS* CTSH DAY* JNPR FI SIMO* VSH* PTC PYCR NTGR

Feb 6:   PINS NET RBLX* FTNT EXPE AFRM TTWO MPWR BILL SONO POWI VRSN LSPD* PCTY SYNA ONTO WMG* TokyoElectron*
2 月 6 日： PINS NET RBLX* FTNT EXPE AFRM TTWO MPWR BILL SONO POWI VRSN LSPD* PCTY SYNA ONTO WMG* 东京电子*

Feb 10:   ALAB  2 月 10 日：ALAB

Feb 11:   DASH CFLT GFS* FRSH OS UPST
2 月 11 日：DASH CFLT GFS* FRSH OS UPST

Feb 12:   RDDT APP HOOD FSLY RPD AEIS
2 月 12 日：RDDT APP HOOD FSLY RPD AEIS

Feb 13:   CYBR* TWLO ADYEN* GDDY SONY* ZBRA* FROG INFA  SINCH*
2 月 13 日： CYBR* TWLO ADYEN* GDDY SONY* ZBRA* FROG INFA SINCH*

Feb 18:   BIDU* CDNS GFS* FOUR
2 月 18 日：BIDU* CDNS GFS* FOUR

Feb 19:   GRMN* AMPL  2 月 19 日： GRMN* AMPL

Feb 20:   WMT SQ/XYZ AKAM BESI*
2 月 20 日： WMT SQ/XYZ AKAM BESI*

Feb 24:   CHGG  2 月 24 日： CHGG

Feb 25:   ZI SPT  2 月 25 日：ZI SPT

Feb 26:   NVDA MQ  2 月 26 日： NVDA MQ

Feb 27:   DELL DV PRY*
2 月 27 日：DELL DV PRY*

March 12:   ADBE  3 月 12 日：ADBE

March 20:   ACN  3 月 20 日：ACN

* pre-market  * 盘前交易

1.  NVDA CEO denies CoWoS cuts during interviews in Asia where he indicated demand for advanced packaging from TSMC remains strong. | Reuters, EconDaily
1. NVDA 首席执行官在亚洲的采访中否认了 CoWoS 削减，并表示对台积电先进封装的需求依然强劲。| 路透社，经济日报

‘As we move into Blackwell, we will use largely CoWoS-L. Of course, we're still manufacturing Hopper, and Hopper will use CowoS-S. We will also transition the CoWoS-S capacity to CoWos-L … ‘So it's not about reducing capacity. It's actually increasing capacity into CoWoS-L.’, Huang said on the sidelines of an event by chip supplier SPIL.
“随着我们进入 Blackwell，我们将主要使用 CoWoS-L。当然，我们仍在生产 Hopper，Hopper 将使用 CoWoS-S。我们还将把 CoWoS-S 的产能转移到 CoWoS-L……‘所以这不是在减少产能。实际上是将产能增加到 CoWoS-L。’黄在芯片供应商 SPIL 的一次活动间隙表示。”

Asked about concerns on GB200 cooling he said Blackwell cooling tech is 'relatively complex' but Blackwell has 'already entered full-scale production' and the challenges encountered in the initial stages are 'quite normal' given the system’s complexity. The Blackwell system has already begun shipping to global customers.
关于 GB200 冷却的担忧，他表示 Blackwell 冷却技术“相对复杂”，但 Blackwell“已经进入全面生产”，考虑到系统的复杂性，初期遇到的挑战是“相当正常的”。Blackwell 系统已经开始向全球客户发货。

Digitimes notes supply-chain denying concerns as well given TSMC conference call comments and Foxconn + Quanta + Wistron constantly affirming unchanged shipment schedules + robust oder volumes. | Digitimes
Digitimes 指出，供应链对担忧的否认也是基于台积电电话会议的评论，以及富士康、广达和纬创不断确认的未变的出货计划和强劲的订单量。| Digitimes

More AI News:  更多人工智能新闻：

• MRVL announced Investor Day in NYC June 10. | Release
  MRVL 宣布将在纽约市于 6 月 10 日举行投资者日。| 发布

• MSFT & GOOGL both changed AI pricing this week.  MSFT announced the ‘freemium’ M365 Commercial change earlier this week but yesterday raised prices for Consumer M365 by $3 per month bundling in AI features.  GOOGL is also making AI features free in Gmail + Docs but raising the overall price of Workspace.  Together this makes you question whether the companies can change extra for AI features. | Verge
  MSFT 和 GOOGL 本周都调整了 AI 定价。MSFT 本周早些时候宣布了“免费增值”M365 商业版的变化，但昨天将消费者 M365 的价格提高了每月 3 美元，并捆绑了 AI 功能。GOOGL 也在 Gmail 和 Docs 中提供免费的 AI 功能，但提高了 Workspace 的整体价格。这让人质疑这些公司是否可以对 AI 功能收取额外费用。 | Verge

• AAPL is pulling AI-generated notifications for news after generating fake headlines, which contradicts AAPL’s message was that they were okay being late on AI so they could get it right. | CNN
  AAPL 正在拉取 AI 生成的新闻通知，因为生成了虚假的头条，这与 AAPL 的信息相矛盾，即他们表示可以在 AI 上迟到，以便能够做到正确。 | CNN

• GOOGL DeepMind unveils inference-time scaling for diffusion models, applying the technology beyond LLMs and finding ‘substantial improvements’ in the quality of the samples generated. | AIM
  谷歌深度学习公司 DeepMind 推出了扩散模型的推理时间缩放技术，将该技术应用于超出LLMs的范围，并在生成样本的质量上发现了“显著改善”。 | AIM

• GOOGL new neural-net LLM architecture separates Memory components to control rising costs of capacity and compute and inference time. Called Titans, the architecture enables models to find and store during inference small bits of information that are important in long sequences. | VentureBeat
  GOOGL 新的神经网络LLM架构将内存组件分离，以控制容量和计算及推理时间的上升成本。该架构称为 Titans，使模型能够在推理过程中找到并存储在长序列中重要的小信息片段。| VentureBeat

• MTCH Hinge launched new AI feature ‘Prompt Feedback’ to tell you if your line is too basic. | TechCrunch
  MTCH Hinge 推出了新的 AI 功能“提示反馈”，告诉您您的台词是否过于基础。| TechCrunch

• DUOL saw +216% growth in new Mandarin learners in the US compared to this time last year as 'TikTok refugees' move to RedNote. | SCMP
  DUOL 在美国的新普通话学习者增长了 216%，与去年同期相比，因“抖音难民”转向 RedNote。| SCMP

• PLTR in talks to invest in Shield AI drone startup at $5B valuation. | TheInformation
  PLTR 正在洽谈以 50 亿美元估值投资 Shield AI 无人机初创公司。| TheInformation

• Netradyne provides AI-enabled dashcams to fleet owners like Amazon, raised a $90M Series D at a pre-money valuation of $1.25B. | TechCrunch
  Netradyne 为亚马逊等车队所有者提供 AI 驱动的行车记录仪，完成了 9000 万美元的 D 轮融资，融资前估值为 12.5 亿美元。| TechCrunch

• Mira Murati’s AI startup has poached ~10 researchers + engineers from rivals, including former OpenAI Head of Special Projects. | Wired
  米拉·穆拉提的人工智能初创公司从竞争对手那里挖走了约 10 名研究人员和工程师，包括前 OpenAI 特别项目负责人。| Wired

• Ndea:  Former GOOGL AI researcher François Chollet founds new AGI lab called Ndea using deep learning + ‘program synthesis’ as alternative to major labs arguing that training data limits current AI. | TechCrunch
  Ndea：前 GOOGL AI 研究员弗朗索瓦·肖莱创立了一个新的 AGI 实验室，名为 Ndea，利用深度学习和“程序合成”作为主要实验室的替代方案，认为训练数据限制了当前的人工智能。| TechCrunch

• Survey:    26% of US teens age 13-17 use OpenAI ChatGPT for schoolwork in 2024, up from 13% in 2023, while 79% had heard of it, up from 67% in 2023. | Pew
  调查：2024 年，26%的美国 13-17 岁青少年在学习中使用 OpenAI ChatGPT，较 2023 年的 13%有所上升，而 79%的人听说过该工具，较 2023 年的 67%有所增加。| Pew

• Aligned Data Centers secures $12B in funding for 5GW data center build out. | DCD
  Aligned Data Centers 获得 120 亿美元资金用于 5GW 数据中心建设。 | DCD

• GEV preview / Andrew Percoco says the most important KPI heading into next week's earnings is its updated backlog numbers and general commentary from management on potential timing/customer/pricing of the 9 GW of slot reservations highlighted at its December investor day. Regarding backlog, recall management highlighted 5-6 GW of gas turbine order volume expected in 4Q (or ~$5-$6bn of total bookings, inclusive of services on our estimate). Within Electrification, management highlighted two new HVDC orders signed subsequent to the 3Q earnings call, which should lead to at least ~$2bn of equipment orders in the quarter. We look for bullish commentary on the pricing environment that would support further upside to estimates beyond 2028, as slot reservations now extend into 2029. This is key to support the stocks current valuation. | Andrew Percoco
  GEV 预览 / Andrew Percoco 表示，下周财报最重要的 KPI 是更新的积压订单数字以及管理层对 12 月投资者日中强调的 9 GW 插槽预订的潜在时间/客户/定价的一般评论。关于积压订单，管理层提到预计在第四季度将有 5-6 GW 的燃气轮机订单量（或约 50-60 亿美元的总预订，包括我们估计的服务）。在电气化方面，管理层强调在第三季度财报电话会议后签署的两个新的 HVDC 订单，这应该在本季度带来至少约 20 亿美元的设备订单。我们期待对定价环境的乐观评论，这将支持 2028 年之后的进一步上行预期，因为插槽预订现在延伸到 2029 年。这对支持股票当前估值至关重要。 | Andrew Percoco

Source:  Microsoft  来源：微软

3.  MS Software Outlook stock calls from yesterday | MSR
3. 昨天的 MS 软件前景股票电话 | MSR

• DDOG Downgrade to UW / Sanjit Singh sees modest risk to initial FY25 rev growth likely below consensus ~22%, while near-term decel possible as AI native customers (OpenAI) may optimize spend after a period of rapid growth and renew under better pricing terms.
  DDOG 下调至 UW / Sanjit Singh 认为 FY25 初始收入增长的风险适度，可能低于市场共识的 ~22%，同时由于 AI 原生客户（OpenAI）在快速增长后可能会优化支出并在更好的定价条款下续约，短期内可能出现放缓。

• CFLT Downgrade to UW / Sanjit optimistic LT but checks are not yet showing any major customer uptake of Flink product cycle, which creates a more difficult setup for initial guide.
  CFLT 下调至 UW / Sanjit 对长期持乐观态度，但检查尚未显示出主要客户对 Flink 产品周期的重大采纳，这为初始指引创造了更困难的局面。

• BILL Upgrade to OW / Chris Quintero (has had good stock calls) likes management’s new product strategy (enhancing virtual card experience via automation + data passing, new payment engine, local transfer international payments, enhanced invoice financing, new ACH product), along with move up-market and SMB recovery.
  BILL 升级为买入 / Chris Quintero（有良好的股票推荐）喜欢管理层的新产品战略（通过自动化和数据传递增强虚拟卡体验、新支付引擎、本地转账国际支付、增强的发票融资、新的 ACH 产品），以及向高端市场的转型和中小企业的复苏。

• OS Upgrade to OW / Chris Q views this as a best-in-class data platform with high quality management team and multiple tailwinds for 2025 including ERP ‘supercycle’, Sensible ML product adoption, and pricing + packaging change tailwinds.
  操作系统升级到 OW / Chris Q 将其视为一个最佳数据平台，拥有高质量的管理团队和多个 2025 年的顺风因素，包括 ERP“超级周期”、合理的机器学习产品采用以及定价+包装变更的顺风因素。

• DOCN Upgrade to OW / Josh Baer says moving up-market with existing customers yields faster growth + stronger unit economics while stock getting no credit for AI / ML optionality.
  DOCN 升级为 OW / Josh Baer 表示，与现有客户向高端市场发展带来更快的增长 + 更强的单位经济，同时股票未能获得 AI / ML 选择权的认可。

• TEAM reiterate Top Pick / Keith Weiss sees strong potential for upside revisions.   With close to 47K customers spending >$100K in Cloud ARR, and assuming 175-350 unique users/customer, at $20/user/month Rovo represents a ~$2B-$4B opportunity.  Scenario analysis which assumes ~18%-28% adoption rate over three years indicates a potential for Rovo to drive ~$400-$600M of Cloud ARR by CY27.
  TEAM 重申首选股票/Keith Weiss 认为上调预期的潜力强劲。凭借近 47,000 名客户在云年经常性收入（ARR）中支出超过 100,000 美元，并假设每个客户有 175-350 个独特用户，以每个用户每月 20 美元计算，Rovo 代表着约 20 亿至 40 亿美元的机会。情景分析假设在三年内的采用率为 18%-28%，表明 Rovo 到 2027 年可能推动约 4 亿至 6 亿美元的云年经常性收入。

TWLO Analyst Day preview / Meta Marshall stays EW with the stock at 20x FCF.
TWLO 分析师日预览 / Meta Marshall 维持对该股的中性评级，当前股价为 20 倍自由现金流。

She thinks the company maintains HSD rev growth target, but management will give enough to keep bull case dream alive of low double digits. | MSR
她认为公司维持 HSD 收入增长目标，但管理层会给予足够的支持，以保持低双位数的牛市预期。| MSR

• “What is the underlying growth rate of CPaaS: It has been hard to attribute TWLO's deceleration in Comms (see Exhibit 21) to market penetration, macro, competition, execution (e.g. paying lower incentives). At a higher level, TWLO's Comms business has traditionally been 1/3rd transactions, 1/3rd authentication 1/3rd marketing. We look to the Analyst Day to get a greater sense of how those use cases grow, if there is any threat from RCS (we think not), how ISV channels can help with share gain / outsized growth opportunity, and what opportunities there are to upsell other products to these customers. If we were to hear more about effectiveness of upsell of other products, we would see that as a positive.
  “CPaaS 的潜在增长率是什么：很难将 TWLO 在通讯业务上的放缓（见展览 21）归因于市场渗透、宏观经济、竞争、执行（例如支付较低的激励）。从更高的层面来看，TWLO 的通讯业务传统上是 1/3 的交易、1/3 的身份验证和 1/3 的营销。我们期待分析师日能更好地了解这些用例的增长情况，是否存在来自 RCS 的威胁（我们认为没有），ISV 渠道如何帮助获得市场份额/超额增长机会，以及向这些客户追加销售其他产品的机会。如果我们能听到更多关于其他产品追加销售有效性的消息，我们会将其视为积极信号。”

• “Greater clarity on AI potential and timeline: We do believe company is in a unique position to differentiate its AI capabilities by leveraging Segment's data and by building partnerships, similar to recent OpenAI real time API integration. However, we do note that the AI opportunity is still in early days with monetization ability and contribution timeline still largely unknown, and we look to the Analyst Day for greater detail on go-forward strategy. Many investors we speak to are still hesitant to ascribe meaningful value to this opportunity today.
  “对人工智能潜力和时间表的更清晰认识：我们确实相信公司处于一个独特的位置，可以通过利用 Segment 的数据和建立合作伙伴关系来区分其人工智能能力，类似于最近的 OpenAI 实时 API 集成。然而，我们确实注意到，人工智能的机会仍处于早期阶段，货币化能力和贡献时间表仍然在很大程度上未知，我们期待分析师日提供有关未来战略的更多细节。我们与许多投资者交谈时，他们仍然对今天赋予这一机会有意义的价值感到犹豫不决。”

• “How does Segment still fit into the Twilio vision: Investors have broadly written off the Segment asset given anemic growth (91% DBNE and flat Y/Y growth in Q3 despite reacceleration in Comms) and prior strategic review / sale attempt. The hiccup to date has largely been TWLO's inexperience in an enterprise software sale, with expertise largely around a developer-led sale instead. However, management continues to highlight the asset's importance within strategic vision given access to customer data and has noted a shift towards selling it more as one platform with Comms vs. separately (i.e. bringing Unified Profiles directly into Comms vs. buying entire CDP stack), helping get back to developer-led sales approach. We look for greater clarity on how Segment fits within the Twilio stack and whether revamped sales motion can help the asset re-inflect and justify standalone value being ascribed to asset.
  “Segment 如何仍然适应 Twilio 的愿景：投资者普遍对 Segment 资产持悲观态度，原因是增长乏力（第三季度 DBNE 为 91%，同比增长持平，尽管通讯业务有所回升）以及之前的战略审查/出售尝试。迄今为止的障碍主要是 TWLO 在企业软件销售方面的经验不足，主要专注于开发者主导的销售。然而，管理层继续强调该资产在战略愿景中的重要性，考虑到对客户数据的访问，并指出向将其作为一个平台与通讯一起销售的转变，而不是单独销售（即将统一档案直接引入通讯，而不是购买整个 CDP 堆栈），这有助于回归开发者主导的销售方式。我们期待对 Segment 在 Twilio 堆栈中的适应性以及重新设计的销售方式是否能帮助该资产重新增长并证明其独立价值的更清晰的认识。”

• “Degree of incremental profitability remaining: TWLO has expanded non-GAAP operating margins from break-even in FY22 to ~16% in the most recent quarter, largely around headcount reductions and go to market changes. Management continues to signal further opportunities for leverage into FY25 and beyond around Segment reacceleration, increased automation / self-service and organizational optimization. If profitability targets were closer to ~20%, we would see that as a bull case driver.
  “剩余增量盈利能力的程度：TWLO 已将非 GAAP 运营利润率从 FY22 的盈亏平衡扩大至最近一个季度的约 16%，主要得益于裁员和市场推广的变化。管理层继续发出信号，预计在 FY25 及以后，围绕细分市场的重新加速、自动化/自助服务的增加和组织优化将有进一步的杠杆机会。如果盈利目标接近约 20%，我们将视其为牛市驱动因素。”

CWAN Upgrade to OW / Michael Infante views the acquisition of ENFN as a transformational step that makes the front-to-back opportunity a reality. | MSR
CWAN 升级为 OW / Michael Infante 认为收购 ENFN 是一个变革性步骤，使前到后机会成为现实。 | MSR

He’s bullish on the deal and believes the outlined accretion targets are achievable / conservative as they don’t fully bake in higher incremental GM or revenue synergies.
他对这笔交易持乐观态度，并认为所列出的增值目标是可实现的/保守的，因为它们并未完全考虑到更高的增量毛利或收入协同效应。

More broadly, want to own this best-in-class category leader at a reasonable pro forma multiple.
更广泛地说，希望以合理的预期倍数拥有这个行业领先的最佳类别。

3.  Supply Chain Datapoints:
3. 供应链数据点：

• QRVO +14% as Starboard has taken ~7.7% stake and is pushing for changes. | WSJ
  QRVO +14%，因 Starboard 已持有约 7.7%的股份并推动变革。| WSJ

• AAPL / Canalys data said Chian iPhone shipments fell -25%y/y in 4Q. | Canalys
  AAPL / Canalys 数据显示，中国 iPhone 出货量在第四季度同比下降了 25%。| Canalys

• QCOM + MTK / China Smartphone subsidy to kick off Jan 20:  )1) The ceiling retail product price is Rmb6,000; (2) Consumers can enjoy 15% subsidy based on the retail price; (3) The subsidy has a limit of Rmb500. | Andy Meng
  QCOM + MTK / 中国智能手机补贴将于 1 月 20 日启动： (1) 零售产品价格上限为人民币 6,000 元； (2) 消费者可以根据零售价格享受 15%的补贴； (3) 补贴上限为人民币 500 元。 | Andy Meng

• AAPL, SNPS & BABA latest members of UALink Consortium to compete with NVDA NVLink. | DCD
  AAPL、SNPS 和 BABA 最新成为 UALink 联盟成员，与 NVDA NVLink 竞争。 | DCD

• TXN fell yesterday as China will investigate allegations that the US dumps lower-end chips and unfairly subsidizes its own chipmakers, in potentially one of Beijing’s strongest retaliatory moves against American technology sanctions. | Bloomberg
  德州仪器（TXN）昨日下跌，因为中国将调查美国倾销低端芯片和不公平补贴本国芯片制造商的指控，这可能是北京对美国技术制裁的最强有力的反制措施之一。| 彭博社

• Samsung execs to get part of bonus in stock in big revamp.  Samsung will pay 50%-100% of executive bonuses in stock starting January 2026, linking compensation to share performance amid chipmaking struggles. | Bloomberg
  三星高管将在重大重组中获得部分股票奖金。三星将从 2026 年 1 月起以股票支付 50%-100%的高管奖金，将薪酬与股价表现挂钩，以应对芯片制造的挑战。| 彭博社