在新的宏观范式之下，海外发达国家劳动力缺口打开、绿色能源转型、全球供应链调整、地缘政治冲突交织下，导致供给侧约束长期存在。目前美国 14 个产业有 11 个相继进入主动补库周期，外部一经市场复苏，中国出口韧性彰显：1-4月进出口总值13.8万亿，创历史新高。 Under the new macro paradigm, the labor gap opening in overseas developed countries, green energy transformation, global supply chain adjustment, geopolitical conflict intertwined, resulting in supply-side constraints for a long time. At present, 11 of the 14 U.S. industries have successively entered the active replenishment cycle, the external a market recovery, China's export resilience is evident: January-April import and export value of 13.8 trillion, a record high.
3刺激通胀 3 Stimulate inflation
在外部市场通胀高启的高利率当下，我国高铁、水、燃气、电等公共事业开始陆续开启涨价，加之猪肉库存的去库接近尾声，CPI在政策性的引导下开始进入抬升周期（如果海外市场不出现硬着陆），我们会看到海外再通胀和国内重回温和通胀，从而倒逼工资分配和利率上行。 In the external market inflation high start of high interest rates now, China's high-speed rail, water, gas, electricity and other public utilities began to open one after another price increases, coupled with the pork stockpile de-stocking is nearing the end of the CPI in the policy guidance began to enter the lifting cycle (if the overseas market does not have a hard landing), we will see the reflation of overseas and the domestic back to moderate inflation, which will force the wage distribution and interest rates to move upward.
2 呵护地产 2 Caring for Real Estate
在原先的支柱产业房地产上，政策应出尽出：3000亿资金支持收购存量房，给社会基层兜底；放开限购，鼓励有钱人稳住1-2套的刚需配置；鼓励腰部企业造差异化的好房子，满足富裕阶层改善型需求。自然资源部发布的供地新规，明确未来土地供应将得到严格控制，库存去化成为调整供需关系的重要抓手。 In the original pillar industry real estate, the policy should be out of all: 300 billion funds to support the acquisition of stock of housing, to the grassroots of the community pocket; liberalization of restrictions on purchases, to encourage the rich to stabilize the 1-2 sets of just demand configuration; encourage the waist enterprises to build a differentiation of the good house, to meet the improvement of the affluent class demand. The Ministry of Natural Resources issued new regulations on land supply, making it clear that the future land supply will be strictly controlled, and inventory demineralization has become an important hand in adjusting the relationship between supply and demand.
内需来看，压力存在于当下居民与政府的支出力度不足。4月国内居民部门消费弹性向上空间有限；国内政府融资及基建开工速度偏慢。 4月M1同比下降1.4%，社会各部门去杠杆明显。5月10日，财政部发文增发超长期特别国债，可以看到政府融资开始跟进刺激。 Domestic demand, the pressure exists in the current residents and the government's spending is not enough. in April, the domestic residential sector consumption elasticity upward space is limited; the domestic government financing and infrastructure construction is slow. April M1 fell 1.4% year-on-year, all sectors of society to deleverage obviously.May 10, the Ministry of Finance issued additional ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, you can see that the government financing began to follow up the stimulus.
宏观经济 macro-economic
宏观数据 Macro data
现值 fair value
前值 previous value
高值 high value
低值 low value
单位 unit (of measure)
发布日 publication date
汇率 exchange rates
7.23
7.22
8.73
1.53
人民币/美元 RMB/USD
24-May
股指 stock market index
3154
3122
6124
95.79
点位 point
24-May
GDP_年化同比 GDP_Annualized year-on-year
5.3
5.2
18.7
-6.9-6.9
%
24-Mar
失业率 unemployment rate
5
5.2
6.2
3.9
%
24-Apr
通胀率_同比 Inflation rate_year-on-year
0.3
0.1
28.4
-2.2-2.2
%
24-Apr
通胀率_环比 Inflation_Cyclical
0.1
-1-1
2.6
-1.8-1.8
%
24-Apr
利率（1y LPR） Interest rate (1y LPR)
3.45
3.45
5.77
3.45
%
24-Apr
存款准备金率 deposit-reserve ratio
10
10
21.5
6
%
24-Apr
贸易余额 Trade balance
72.35
58.55
125
-61.99-61.99
10亿美金 One billion dollars.
24-Apr
经常账户余额 Current account balance
392
562
1515
-523-523
亿美金 billions of dollars
24-Mar
经常账户余额vsGDP占比 Current account balance vs. GDP share
1.5
2.2
10.1
-3.7-3.7
%
23-Dec
政府债务vSGDP占比 Government debt v SGDP as a percentage
77.1
71.8
77.1
20.6
%
22-Dec
财政赤字vsGDP占比 Fiscal deficit vs. GDP share
-7.4
-6.1
0.58
-8.6
%
22-Dec
制造业PMI_国家统计局 Manufacturing PMI_National Bureau of Statistics
50.4
50.8
59.2
35.7
点位 point
24-Apr
制造业PMI_财新 Manufacturing PMI_Caixin
51.4
51.1
54.9
40.3
点位 point
24-Apr
非制造业PMI_国家统计局 Non-Manufacturing PMI_NBS
51.2
53
62.2
29.6
点位 point
24-Apr
服务业PMI财新 Services PMI Caixin
52.5
52.7
58.4
26.5
点位 point
24-Apr
消费者信心国家统计局 Consumer confidence National Statistics Office
亿人次 hundred million people
较2019年同比 Year-over-year compared to 2019 +28.2%+28.2 \%
1669
亿人民币 hundred million yuan (RMB)
较2019年同比 Year-over-year compared to 2019 +13.5%+13.5 \%
566
元/程 Yuan/trip
较2019年同比 Year-over-year compared to 2019 -11.4%-11.4 \%
和疫情前相比：出行基数增长，更多的人在五一假期参与到出行旅行当中；但是海外出行游尚未恢复到疫情前的水平，从而长线高消费的占比下降，人均消费随着国内城际旅游的占比提升而下降。 Compared with the pre-epidemic period: the travel base grew and more people participated in travel trips during the May Day holiday; however, overseas travel trips have not yet recovered to the pre-epidemic level, thus the share of long-haul high-spending has declined, and per capita spending has declined along with the share of domestic inter-city travel.
信源：华泰宏观 Source: Huatai Macro
Go Faraway
出行意愿强、半径扩大，总收入上升下量升价跌。自驾出行继续结构性高增长——隽程数据亦显示今年五一假期国内租车自驾订单同比增长 40%40 \% 。 Strong willingness to travel, expanding radius, and rising total revenues under the volume rise and price drop. Self-driving travel continues to be structurally high growth - Junket data also shows year-on-year growth in domestic car rental and self-driving orders for this year's May Day holiday 40%40 \% .
Dopamine
体验式 "多巴胺"消费品类继疃胜出（如：演唱会、音乐节、餐饮、电影)，商品消费表现平平。 The experiential "dopamine" consumer goods category won (e.g., concerts, music festivals, restaurants, movies), while merchandise consumption was mediocre.
Rejuvenation
携程数据五一假期 “00后” 同比增长2成，占比达到 31%31 \% 。出行群体年轻化带动演唱令及音乐节搜索热度同比增长超 10 倍。 Ctrip data May Day holiday "00 after" year-on-year growth of 20%, accounting for 31%31 \% . The youthfulness of the travel group drove the search heat of singing orders and music festivals to increase by more than 10 times year-on-year.
中国国高端车市被德系油车、中国新能源品牌（问界&理想增程）以及特斯拉电车所瓜分。 China's national premium car market is divided between German tanker cars, Chinese new energy brands (Inquirer & Ideal Extended Range) and Tesla trams.
在海外，纯电车遭遇政府税收压力挤压（电力交通税收大幅低于油车税收，美国和欧州在财政赤字不断扩大的税收压力之下，趋向于补贴退坡和税收增加。在欧美市场，电车的增速衰减明显。 Overseas, pure tram suffered government tax pressure squeeze (electric transportation tax is significantly lower than the tax on oil vehicles, the United States and Europe under the tax pressure of the expanding fiscal deficit, tends to subsidy rebate and tax increase. In the European and American markets, the growth rate of trams has decayed significantly.
中国新能源车的高增速由增程车接棒，例如：均价 60 万＋的问界M9，周销量2911辆，其中增程 2600辆，纯电仅为 300 辆。在50万以上的豪华车中，燃油和增程是主要的动力模式。 The high growth rate of China's new energy vehicles has been taken over by extended-range vehicles, e.g., the M9, with an average price of $600,000+, sold 2,911 units weekly, of which 2,600 were extended-range and only 300 were pure electric. Fuel and range-extended are the main power modes in the $500,000+ luxury segment.
日系在15万以下低端车市场，遭遇比亚迪和众多新势力的挤压式出清。很多经销商倒闭离场。 The Japanese have suffered a crushing clear out from BYD and many new forces in the lower end of the sub 150,000 car market. Many dealers closed down and left the market.
华为数字能源携手车企、充电运营商及产业伙伴成立 “超充联盟”，当前超充联盟已有 11 家首批车企加入，分别是阿维塔、北汽、比亚迪、长城、广汽、合众、江淮、理想、奇瑞、赛力斯。 Huawei Digital Energy joined hands with automobile enterprises, charging operators and industry partners to establish the "Supercharging Alliance". Currently, the Supercharging Alliance has been joined by 11 first batch automobile enterprises, which are Avita, BAIC, BYD, Great Wall, Guangzhou Automobile, Hezhong, JAC, Ideal, Chery, and Ceres.
伴随电动车进一步深入发展, 需要高压电网的基建配套, 以及储能解决方案和电网的智能化改造。中国政府致力新能源车上路的充电网络建设、智能驾驶的车联网、万物互联的智慧城市的进一步资源倾斜和政策扶持。西方社会在电网基建上出现掣时，可重点关注TSL的美国充电团队的组织架构调整。 With the further development of EVs, there is a need for high-voltage power grid infrastructure, as well as energy storage solutions and intelligent transformation of the power grid. The Chinese government is committed to providing further resources and policy support for the construction of charging networks for new energy vehicles on the road, the Internet of Vehicles (IoV) for intelligent driving, and the Smart City for the Internet of Everything (IoE). As Western societies struggle with grid infrastructure, watch TSL's U.S. charging team as it adjusts its organizational structure.
4 下沉咖啡市场，本土品牌崛起 4 Sinking Coffee Market, Rise of Local Brands
Fig. 5: China’s coffee market competition landscape Gross merchandise value from online order (%) Fig. 5: China's coffee market competition landscape Gross merchandise value from online order (%)
瑞幸的增长主要是由它向二三线城市的扩张推动的，而星巴克在过去两年中在这一领域的增长有限。国产咖啡厂商的优势主要来自低价战略，此外迅速适应当地消费者的偏好和快速推出产品也是实现增长的关键因素，例如：瑞幸的旗舰饮料"生椰子拿铁"和"茅台拿铁"。 Ruixing's growth has been driven by its expansion into Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, while Starbucks has seen limited growth in this area over the past two years. The domestically produced coffee maker's strength comes from its low-pricing strategy, while quickly adapting to local consumer preferences and launching products such as Ruixing's flagship "Raw Coconut Latte" and "Moutai Latte" have also been key factors in its growth.
2024年第一季度，星巴克在中国的收入同比下降 7.6%7.6 \% (24财年第二季度)与 2023年17.7%的增长相比大幅下降。与此同时，瑞幸咖啡在2023年的年销售额超过了星巴克，成为亚洲最大的咖啡连锁店，第一季度的收入同比增长率为 41.5%41.5 \% ，低于 23 年的 87.3%87.3 \% 。 In Q1 2024, Starbucks' revenue in China fell 7.6%7.6 \% year-over-year (Q2 FY24) down sharply from 17.7% growth in 2023. Meanwhile, Ruixing Coffee, which surpassed Starbucks as Asia's largest coffee chain in terms of annual sales in 2023, posted 41.5%41.5 \% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1, down from 87.3%87.3 \% in FY23.
Fig. 3: Luckin’s rapid footprint expansion Number of store in operation Fig. 3: Luckin's rapid footprint expansion Number of stores in operation
信源_BigOne Lab, Nomura Global Economics Source_BigOne Lab, Nomura Global Economics
