China’s Communist Party charts technology- and security-focused development for reviving the economy
中国共产党为振兴经济制定以技术和安全为重点的发展战略

BANGKOK (AP) — In a year of major elections that will determine the destinies of many countries, China’s ruling Communist Party is holding closed, top-level meetings in Beijing to set strategies for reviving its slowing economy.
曼谷（美联社）--在决定许多国家命运的大选之年，中国执政党共产党正在北京举行闭门高层会议，为重振放缓的经济制定战略。

State media likened the meetings that end Thursday to reforms started in the late 1970s that opened China’s economy to foreign investment and private enterprise. State broadcaster CCTV said the agenda for this year’s meetings is to study and endorse “all-around deepening reforms.”
国家媒体将周四结束的会议比作 20 世纪 70 年代末开始的改革，当时中国经济向外国投资和私营企业开放。国家广播公司 CCTV 称，今年会议的议程是研究和批准 "全面深化改革"。

Nearly a half-century after the late leader Deng Xiaoping launched China’s ascent as a manufacturing powerhouse, the party is doubling down on leader Xi Jinping’s blueprint for technology- and national security-focused development. Economists say it’s unclear if that will fix the chronic problems dragging on the economy, including a weak job market, massive local government debts and a prolonged slump in the property industry.
在已故领导人邓小平将中国提升为制造业强国近半个世纪后，中国共产党正在加倍推进领导人习近平以技术和国家安全为重点的发展蓝图。经济学家表示，目前还不清楚这是否能解决拖累经济的长期问题，包括疲软的就业市场、地方政府的巨额债务和房地产业的长期低迷。

While those problems are mostly domestic headaches, the health of the world’s second-largest economy has an impact way beyond its borders, affecting business activity, financial markets and job opportunities across the globe.
虽然这些问题主要是国内的头疼问题，但世界第二大经济体的健康状况影响远远超出了其国界，它影响着全球的商业活动、金融市场和就业机会。

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China’s economy is still slowing
中国经济仍在放缓

On Monday, the government reported that the economy grew at a 4.7% annual pace in the last quarter, down from 5.3% in January-March. In quarterly terms, it slowed to 0.7% from 1.5%.
周一，政府报告称，上一季度经济年增长率为 4.7%，低于 1-3 月份的 5.3%。按季度计算，增长率从 1.5%降至 0.7%。

Property sales fell nearly 27% for the year through June from a year earlier, and retail sales increased only 2% in June, the lowest level since the coronavirus pandemic.
截至 6 月份，全年房地产销售额同比下降近 27%，6 月份零售额仅增长 2%，为冠状病毒大流行以来的最低水平。

Despite a cash-for-clunkers program and other initiatives launched this spring to coax people to replace old cars and appliances, vehicle sales sank 6.2% from a year earlier in June while sales of appliances and electronics dropped 7.6%.
尽管今年春季推出了 "旧车换现金 "计划和其他措施来鼓励人们更换旧车和电器，但 6 月份的汽车销量仍比去年同期下降了 6.2%，电器和电子产品的销量则下降了 7.6%。

Given the vital role housing plays in household wealth, “We expect retail sales will remain weak without fundamental improvement in the property sector,” Raymond Yeung and other economists at ANZ Research said in a report.
鉴于住房在家庭财富中的重要作用，"我们预计，如果房地产行业没有根本性改善，零售销售将继续疲软，"澳新银行研究部的 Raymond Yeung 和其他经济学家在一份报告中说。

China’s people are keeping a tight rein on spending, wary over job losses, the minimal social safety net, costs for education and other risks. Economists say that without fundamental reforms that allow workers to retain more of the nation’s wealth, consumer demand is likely to remain subdued.
中国人民正在严格控制支出，对失业、最低限度的社会安全网、教育成本和其他风险保持警惕。经济学家表示，如果不进行根本性改革，让工人保留更多的国家财富，消费需求很可能会持续低迷。

The Communist Party’s game plan
共产党的游戏计划

Since taking power in 2012, Xi has sought to strengthen the party’s controls over business and society, launching crackdowns on corruption, the fast-growing technology sector and excess borrowing by property developers, and promoting his vision for a Chinese-style of ”high-quality” development with heavy investments in advanced technology and clean energy.
自2012年掌权以来，习近平一直在努力加强党对企业和社会的控制，打击腐败、快速增长的科技行业和房地产开发商的过度借贷，并通过大力投资先进技术和清洁能源来推动他的中国式 "高质量 "发展愿景。

It follows a “Made in China 2025” initiative that began in 2015 and is meant to transform the country from a maker of toys, furniture and other labor-intensive products into the top producer of high-tech goods. While China still lags the U.S. in many critical areas, it has made huge strides in catching up.
在此之前，中国于2015年开始实施 "中国制造2025 "计划，旨在将中国从玩具、家具和其他劳动密集型产品的生产国转变为高科技产品的顶级生产国。虽然中国在许多关键领域仍落后于美国，但它已在追赶美国方面取得了巨大进步。

Instead of heading overseas to buy fancy rice cookers and multifunctional toilet seats, Chinese can now get domestically made electric vehicles, home appliances and sophisticated sports gear. China now manufactures its own aircraft, electronics and advanced computer chips, the state-run Xinhua News Agency noted in a lengthy profile praising Xi’s role as a reformer.
中国人不用再去海外购买高级电饭煲和多功能马桶盖，现在可以买到国产的电动汽车、家用电器和精密运动器材。国营的新华社在一篇赞扬习近平作为改革者的长篇报道中指出，中国现在自己制造飞机、电子产品和先进的计算机芯片。

Xi has promised “strategic, innovative and leading reforms,” Xinhua said, to “achieve new breakthroughs in important areas and key sectors.”
新华社说，习近平承诺进行 "战略性、创新性、引领性改革"，"在重要领域和关键环节实现新突破"。

But double-digit growth in production of electric vehicles, solar panels and many other products is adding to concerns China is flooding foreign markets with products that can’t sell at home. Meanwhile, exports have surged, growing nearly 9% in June in annual terms.
但是，电动汽车、太阳能电池板和许多其他产品产量的两位数增长，让人们更加担心中国正在用国内卖不出去的产品充斥国外市场。与此同时，中国的出口也在激增，6 月份的年增长率接近 9%。

The Rhodium Group estimates that China’s manufacturing trade surplus increased by $775 billion in 2019-23. The biggest impact was on advanced economies, like the United States. But smaller developing economies are also at a disadvantage, it said in a report, since “China’s dominant position across so many product categories considerably limits the space for new entrants to emerge as new manufacturing powers.”
据 Rhodium Group 预计，2019-23 年中国制造业贸易顺差将增加 7750 亿美元。对美国等发达经济体的影响最大。但较小的发展中经济体也处于不利地位，该集团在一份报告中说，因为 "中国在众多产品类别中的主导地位大大限制了新进入者成为新的制造业大国的空间"。

Troubles ahead, troubles behind
烦恼在前，麻烦在后

Years ago, China began trying to nurture a stronger consumer economy and reduce reliance on exports and heavy investment projects that now are yielding lower and lower returns.
多年前，中国开始努力培育更强大的消费经济，减少对出口和重型投资项目的依赖，而这些项目现在的收益越来越低。

The crackdown on heavy borrowing by property developers like China Evergrande and Sino-Ocean Group, led to default on loans. Scores of projects went unfinished even after buyers had paid for the apartments.
对中国恒大和远洋集团等房地产开发商大量借贷的打击导致了贷款违约。数十个项目甚至在购房者支付公寓款项后仍未完工。

The downturn in the housing market cut off a key funding source for local governments that relied on selling land-use rights to developers, at a time of heavy spending to fight COVID-19. Beijing faces as much as $11 trillion in local government debt, and investors are watching for moves by the central government to help resolve the problem.
房地产市场的低迷切断了地方政府的一个重要资金来源，而地方政府依赖于向开发商出售土地使用权，此时正值为抗击COVID-19投入巨资之际。北京面临着高达 11 万亿美元的地方政府债务，投资者正在关注中央政府帮助解决这一问题的举措。

Apart from leaving many in China feeling much worse off, the crisis cost millions their livelihoods, causing layoffs in many other industries as demand dwindled for cement, construction, appliances and home furnishings.
这场危机除了让许多中国人感到生活状况大不如前外，还使数百万人失去了生计，导致许多其他行业裁员，因为对水泥、建筑、电器和家居用品的需求减少。

The deterioration in mood and consumer confidence is leading growing numbers of young Chinese to embrace what they call the “stingy economy,” finding ways to get by on the least amount of money possible, or to just leave the country if they have the means to do so.
情绪和消费信心的恶化正在导致越来越多的中国年轻人接受他们所谓的 "吝啬经济"，想方设法用尽可能少的钱过日子，或者如果他们有能力的话，干脆离开这个国家。

Policy dilemmas 政策困境

Any fresh reforms or initiatives resulting from the plenum are bound to be within the parameters set by Xi’s vision for China’s future as a world technology power led by the century-old Communist Party.
全会产生的任何新改革或新举措都必须符合习近平的愿景，即中国未来将成为由拥有百年历史的共产党领导的世界科技强国。

Most recent moves to support the property market have involved fine-tuning: cutting down-payment requirements and interest rates on mortgages and freeing up financing for some property projects. In some cases, local governments are being urged to buy up unsold property to rent out as affordable housing.
最近支持房地产市场的大多数举措都涉及微调：降低首付要求和抵押贷款利率，以及为一些房地产项目释放资金。在某些情况下，还敦促地方政府购买未售出的房产，作为经济适用房出租。

At the same time, favored initiatives such as a Xi’s model city south of Beijing, Xiong’an, are getting extra support while projects elsewhere have languished.
与此同时，北京南部的习近平示范城市雄安等受青睐的项目也得到了额外支持，而其他地方的项目却裹足不前。

The party has made improving the business environment, trying to counter a downturn in foreign investment following the shocks of severe anti-virus policies during the pandemic. But it continues expanding its hold on companies and financial institutions. Raids by authorities on offices of foreign companies, arrests of foreign business people and have left foreign businesses wary about the risks of running afoul of ever-tightening national security regulations.
该党已经改善了商业环境，努力应对大流行病期间严厉的反病毒政策冲击后出现的外国投资下滑。但它继续扩大对公司和金融机构的控制。当局突袭外国公司办事处，逮捕外国商人，使外国企业对触犯不断收紧的国家安全法规的风险心存戒备。

Economist Li Daokui of Peking University and other economists say Beijing needs to reduce the debt burdens of local governments and increase central government spending to support growth. More substantial pensions and health insurance would free up more income for spending and generate more jobs.
北京大学经济学家李稻葵和其他经济学家表示，中国政府需要减轻地方政府的债务负担，增加中央政府支出，以支持经济增长。更多的养老金和医疗保险将释放更多的收入用于支出，并创造更多的就业机会。

Others are urging the government to pay subsidies to families, especially those with children. But such stimulus payments or other handouts are unlikely: in his calls to build “common prosperity,” Xi has condemned what he called “the trap of ‘welfarism’ that encourages laziness.”
还有人敦促政府向家庭，尤其是有孩子的家庭发放补贴。但这种刺激措施或其他施舍不太可能：习近平在呼吁建设 "共同富裕 "的同时，谴责了他所谓的 "助长懒惰的'福利主义'陷阱"。