Fitch cuts outlook for China’s state-owned banks from stable to negative citing Beijing’s limited capacity to support them
- Move comes a week after Fitch cut its projection for the country’s sovereign credit rating, reflecting pessimism in the world’s second largest economy
- ‘The large size of the banking sector … constrains the government’s ability to support the sector,’ the credit ratings agency says
Regarding the adjustment for the banks’ outlook, Fitch said on Tuesday that the current size of China’s banking system is an important factor limiting the amount of support the central government could give to its biggest lenders.
“The Chinese banking system has grown rapidly since 2008, with total assets of 417 trillion yuan (US$57.6 trillion) at the end of 2023, equivalent to around 330 per cent of 2023 gross domestic product,” it said.
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The six state banks represent over 40 per cent of assets in the sector, while the country’s 20 “domestic systemically important banks” (D-SIBs) have combined assets accounting for close to 70 per cent of the total, the report added.
“The large size of the banking sector as well as the number of D-SIBs constrain the government’s ability to support the banking sector,” it said.
However, the report emphasised that there is a “very high probability” that Beijing would continue to support the lenders “in a timely manner in the event of stress,” even though the chances of the state offering “the same level of extraordinary support” would be limited.
“For the five state banks except the Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC), this is backed by their direct central government ownership, long history of receiving government support and high systemic importance. All of them are both global systemically important bank (G-SIBs) and D-SIBs,” said Fitch.
The other two state-owned banks are the Agricultural Bank of China and the Bank of Communications.
The report comes at a time when major state-owned lenders are cutting the rates they offer on deposits and reshuffling their product shelves to stave off recent declines in their net interest margins (NIMs) – an important metric for banks’ profitability – amid pressure to shore up the country’s slumping property sector and inject liquidity into the economy.
NIMs for commercial banks fell to 1.69 per cent at the end of last year, narrowing by 4 basis points quarter on quarter, and 22 basis points from the end of 2022 to a new low, according to an Everbright Securities International report.
The finance ministry last week hit back at Fitch’s sovereign outlook downgrade, asserting that the “long-term positive trend of China’s economy has not changed, nor has the Chinese government’s ability and determination to maintain good sovereign credit.”
The world’s second-largest economy on Tuesday reported a faster-than-expected 5.3 per cent GDP growth for the first quarter, after reporting last week that its exports sank 7.5 per cent in March.
China hits back after Fitch Ratings downgrades credit outlook, Beijing says local debt risks are controllable
- Fitch Ratings changed the outlook for China’s sovereign debt from stable to negative, with the Ministry of Finance saying the downgrade was a ‘pity’
- Analysts say China’s widening fiscal deficit is ‘a major worry’, with the outlook complicated by so-called hidden debts, including local government financing vehicles
A decision by a leading credit rating agency to downgrade China’s sovereign debt outlook failed to foresee the “positive role” of Beijing’s fiscal policy mix in promoting economic growth and stabilising the macro-leverage ratio, the Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday.
“It is a pity to see Fitch’s downgrade,” the finance ministry said.
“The long-term positive trend of China’s economy has not changed, nor has the Chinese government’s ability and determination to maintain good sovereign credit.”
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The ministry added that the local debt risk was “controllable”, and that de-risking was progressing in an orderly manner.
But the move by Fitch comes at a delicate time for the world’s second-largest economy, with China set to release its first-quarter data on Tuesday, which is expected to show a rebound in economic activities.
The finance ministry, which had held deep and extensive discussions with Fitch before the downgrade, said that it had scientifically and rationally arranged the scale of the fiscal deficit, and kept the ratio at a reasonable level.
The Chinese government always takes into account multiple goals like supporting economic development, preventing fiscal risks and achieving fiscal sustainability
“Keeping the deficit ratio a reasonable level, 3 per cent in 2024, is conducive to stabilising growth, controlling the government debt ratio and reserving policy space to deal with risks and challenges in the future,” the ministry said.
“In the long run, maintaining a moderate deficit and making good use of precious debt funds will help boost domestic demand, support growth, and in turn help maintain good sovereign credit.
“The Chinese government always takes into account multiple goals, like supporting economic development, preventing fiscal risks and achieving fiscal sustainability.”
Fitch did opt to maintain its A+ rating for China’s sovereign bonds, but the rating remained lower than the AA+ rating for US bonds.
The rating means China’s sovereign bonds are still considered to have an upper-medium investment grade.
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Many investment banks have started to show optimism in China’s economy, with higher growth estimates, after economic activity data has shown some signs of stabilisation this year.
Citi lifted its annual growth forecast from 4.6 per cent to 5 per cent, while Nomura raised its projection from 4 per cent to 4.2 per cent.
However, there are increasing calls for stronger fiscal stimulus to ensure this year’s growth target.
Fiscal deficit is a major worry, which is getting wider
“Fitch believes that fiscal policy is increasingly likely to play an important role in supporting growth in the coming years, which could keep debt on a steady upwards trend,” the rating agency said.
“Contingent liability risks may also be rising, as lower nominal growth exacerbates challenges to managing high economy-wide leverage.”
Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at French investment bank Natixis, said Fitch’s action reflected worries over intensifying financial problems.
“Fiscal deficit is a major worry, which is getting wider, and the number is just what central and local governments have on their balance sheet,” she said.
“We estimate local government financing vehicle (LGFV) debt, that is part of the fiscal deficit, may account for 30 per cent of gross domestic product. So who is going to cover LGFVs if anything happens?”
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Local government debt rose by 14.3 per cent year on year to 41.4 trillion yuan (US$5.7 trillion) by the end of February, according to China’s finance ministry, although the figure does not include so-called hidden debts, including LGFVs.
LGFVs flourished following the 2008 global financial crisis as a way of funding China’s infrastructure building spree, with few generating returns. The debt raised is kept off the balance sheets of local authorities, yet carries an implicit government guarantee of repayment.
The International Monetary Fund estimated last year that LGFV debt had swollen to a record 66 trillion yuan, half of which cannot be serviced by current earnings alone if average funding costs are more than 3 per cent.
It has also allowed local governments to issue special refinancing bonds, estimated to be worth over 1 trillion yuan, to replace the higher-yield debt issued by LGFVs.