Equity Research

TARIFFS IN FOCUS

Global Views: Less Exceptional

The “reciprocal” tariff pause on April 9 prompted us to reverse our move to a recession baseline, but we still see very weak 2025 US growth of just 0.5% on a Q4/Q4 basis. We have also cut our growth forecasts elsewhere—including in Europe and China—but generally more modestly. A less exceptional US growth outlook combined with a real exchange rate that still stands 20% above its long-term average implies a lot of downside for the dollar.

14 April 2025 | Research |  Economics - Jan Hatzius and others
 

China Strategy: Self-help is the best defense

We further cut our 12m targets for MSCI China/CSI300 to 75/4300 (from 81/4500), reflecting new GS forecasts and assumptions of a 125% effective US tariff rate on Chinese imports, 4% GDP growth (from 4.5%) and 14.5% broad deficit spending to GDP ratio in China, and modest Rmb depreciation pressures.

14 April 2025 | Research | Portfolio Strategy - Kinger Lau, CFA and others  

Also see: Asian Equity Perspectives Factoring lower China growth into our views 

Global Economics Comment: Will Tariffs Increase US Employment? Evidence from Academic Studies (Briggs/Dong)

Although President Trump rolled back reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday, the effective US tariff rate is still slated to rise by 15pp as Trump aims to incentivize domestic production and return manufacturing jobs to the US. In this Global Economic Comment, we examine the lessons from history and academic studies to help evaluate whether the administration will succeed in reviving domestic manufacturing employment.

13 April 2025 | Research |  Economics - Jan Hatzius and others
 

Commodities Outlook: Time to Hedge Recession [Replay] (14th April 2025)

Also see:
Asia in Focus: More Fiscal Expansion to Lean Against the Tariff Headwinds
Asia in Focus: How Easily Can US Importers Pivot Away from Chinese Suppliers?  
China: US tariffs on China jump to 125%; Lowering real GDP growth forecasts
Oil Analyst: Still Downside Risks to Oil Prices
Precious Comment: Upgrading Our Year-End Gold Price Forecast to $3,700/toz; Hedge Recession Risk With Gold
GOAL: Global Opportunity Asset Locator: Remain defensive tactically as markets reprice stagflation risks
Global FX Trader: Dollar Wreckoning Global Rates Trader: Aftershocks
Global Credit Trader: Pressing pause is not a reset
Natural Gas: US Tariffs Soften LNG Market; We Lower Our TTF forecast, Maintain Henry Hub View

Webcast replays
Research Unplugged: Bear Market Anatomy – the path and shape of the bear market
  Tariffs and Markets: Our View from DC and the Trading Floor
Cross Asset Strategy: Risk Appetite Collapse
Global Markets: Trading the Trade Policy Agenda

... and more on our Trade Policy page >