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TARIFFS IN FOCUS

Global Views: Less Exceptional

The “reciprocal” tariff pause on April 9 prompted us to reverse our move to a recession baseline, but we still see very weak 2025 US growth of just 0.5% on a Q4/Q4 basis. We have also cut our growth forecasts elsewhere—including in Europe and China—but generally more modestly. A less exceptional US growth outlook combined with a real exchange rate that still stands 20% above its long-term average implies a lot of downside for the dollar.

14 April 2025 | Research |  Economics - Jan Hatzius and others
 

China Strategy: Self-help is the best defense

We further cut our 12m targets for MSCI China/CSI300 to 75/4300 (from 81/4500), reflecting new GS forecasts and assumptions of a 125% effective US tariff rate on Chinese imports, 4% GDP growth (from 4.5%) and 14.5% broad deficit spending to GDP ratio in China, and modest Rmb depreciation pressures.

14 April 2025 | Research | Portfolio Strategy - Kinger Lau, CFA and others  

Also see: Asian Equity Perspectives Factoring lower China growth into our views 

Global Economics Comment: Will Tariffs Increase US Employment? Evidence from Academic Studies (Briggs/Dong)

Although President Trump rolled back reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday, the effective US tariff rate is still slated to rise by 15pp as Trump aims to incentivize domestic production and return manufacturing jobs to the US. In this Global Economic Comment, we examine the lessons from history and academic studies to help evaluate whether the administration will succeed in reviving domestic manufacturing employment.

13 April 2025 | Research |  Economics - Jan Hatzius and others
 

Commodities Outlook: Time to Hedge Recession [Replay] (14th April 2025)

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Also see:
Asia in Focus: More Fiscal Expansion to Lean Against the Tariff Headwinds
Asia in Focus: How Easily Can US Importers Pivot Away from Chinese Suppliers?  
China: US tariffs on China jump to 125%; Lowering real GDP growth forecasts
Oil Analyst: Still Downside Risks to Oil Prices
Precious Comment: Upgrading Our Year-End Gold Price Forecast to $3,700/toz; Hedge Recession Risk With Gold
GOAL: Global Opportunity Asset Locator: Remain defensive tactically as markets reprice stagflation risks
Global FX Trader: Dollar Wreckoning Global Rates Trader: Aftershocks
Global Credit Trader: Pressing pause is not a reset
Natural Gas: US Tariffs Soften LNG Market; We Lower Our TTF forecast, Maintain Henry Hub View

Webcast replays
Research Unplugged: Bear Market Anatomy – the path and shape of the bear market
  Tariffs and Markets: Our View from DC and the Trading Floor
Cross Asset Strategy: Risk Appetite Collapse
Global Markets: Trading the Trade Policy Agenda

... and more on our Trade Policy page >

Last week was dominated by tariff risks following the announcements on April 9th. The 90-day pause of the country-specific portion of "reciprocal" tariffs then resulted in one of the strongest 2-day rallies for US equiti...
15 Apr 2025 | 4:08am| 30pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA and others
Multiple media outlets, including the Nikkei on April 15, reported that the US administration is considering help for some automakers, with President Trump having told reporters that automakers are "switching to parts th...
15 Apr 2025 | 5:24am| 5pg| Research | Equity-Kota Yuzawa and others

key earnings

CATL reported 1Q25 results on 14th Apr after market. Revenue came in at Rmb84.7bn, grow by 6% yoy(first yoy growth since 4Q23), and net profit was Rmb14.0bn, up by 33% yoy, in line with consensus yet 10% below our expectation.
/content/research/authors/55e29579-f000-42d2-9fd7-d5f4f8a74fad.html

Eric Shen

China battery | Hong Kong
15 Apr 2025 | 6:12am| 14pg| Research | Equity-Eric Shen and others

China Consumer Staples: IMF industry outlook and case study on new birth policy

While the high-level nationwide policy on new birth subsidies is still under drafting, we believe the policy remains an important topic for the Chinese government as mentioned in the 2025 Government Work Report. The anticipation by the market has been enhanced post the birth and childcare subsidies announced by Hohhot government on Mar 13, and some cities/regions have followed suit afterwards (YiwuNanwan community of Guangzhou). In this report, we update our IMF industry outlook in a more positive direction (expect normalizing volume declines and continued ASP improvement) based on our recent high frequency tracker and our population model, and conducted case studies on Japan/South Korea's historical new birth subsidy policies.

China Feihe Ltd. (6186.HK): Market share gainer with strong execution amid steadier industry outlook; upgrade to Buy

While Feihe's share price pulled back 5% post its 2024 results miss due to lower one-offs, including gov't grants, and low-margin adult nutrition sales caused by an oversupply of raw milk, our fundamental view on the shares is now more positive, considering: 1) a steadier IMF industry outlook in 2025-27E (see here); 2) Feihe's strong market share presence in both offline and online channels, with solid progress in penetrating higher-tier regions; and, 3) a more robust margin outlook supported by Feihe's continued premiumization strategy. Accordingly, we upgrade Feihe from Neutral to Buy, with our new 12m TP at HK$7.4 ($4.8 prior).

See also:
A2 Milk Co. (ATM.NZ): Raising sales/earnings on CL market share gain amidst an improved IMF backdrop (Lisa Deng)
China Consumer Staples: Nielsen China infant formula (Jan-Feb '25): Offline sales decline narrowed to -2% yoy; Yili gaining share (Leaf Liu)

Leaf Liu
China Consumer | Hong Kong


14 Apr 2025 | Research | Equity - Leaf Liu and others

RATING AND LIST CHANGES
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DAILY ROUNDUPS
The 720: CATL, Global Views, China IMF & Feihe upgrade, Yum China, Kanzhun, Ryohin Keikaku
15 Apr 2025 | 7:20am| 9pg| Research | Equity-Michael Snaith and others
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15 Apr 2025 | 2:03am| 8pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
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GS TWIG Notes: This Week in Global Research - April 11, 2025
12 Apr 2025 | 2:16am| 12pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
End of Week Market Intelligence: which way is up?
12 Apr 2025 | 1:29am| 10pg| Research | Equity-Chris Hussey and others
UPCOMING EVENTS & CONFERENCES
Global Investment Research
conference: Asia
3-30 Apr 2025 | Shenzhen, Virtual
Global Investment Research
webcast: Global
15 Apr 2025 | 1pm LN | 8am NY | 8pm HK
Michelle Cheng, Co- Head of APAC Consumer Research
Sho Kawano, Co- Head of APAC Consumer Research
Richard Edwards, Head of EMEA Consumer Research
Kate McShane, Co- Head of US Consumer Research
Brooke Roach, US Apparel Analyst
Trinity Ford, European Research Merchandising
Passcode: 558593; Meeting ID: 987 2495 7939
Global Investment Research
webcast: Americas
15 Apr 2025 | 10am NY | 3pm LN | 10pm HK
Eric Gaus, Chief Economist, Dodge Construction Network
Sarah Martin, Associate Director of Forecasting, Dodge Construction Network
Jerry Revich, US Machinery, Infrastructure and Sustainable Tech
Daniela Costa, Europe Multi-Industry
Joe Ritchie, US Multi-Industry
Susan Maklari, US Homebuilders & Building Products
Jorel Guilloty, LatAm Real Estate & Homebuilders
Adam Bubes, US Machinery, Infrastructure and Sustainable Tech
Global Investment Research
webcast: Americas
15 Apr 2025 | 11:30am NY | 4:30pm LN | 11:30pm HK
Jim Kenney, Independent Consultant at JTKenney, LLC
Ravi Patel, President and CEO at Keystone Retina
Salveen Richter, Biotech analyst, Goldman Sachs
Elizabeth Webster, Biotech analyst, Goldman Sachs
Tommie Reerink, Biotech analyst, Goldman Sachs