Equity Research
Global Views: Less Exceptional
The “reciprocal” tariff pause on April 9 prompted us to reverse our move to a recession baseline, but we still see very weak 2025 US growth of just 0.5% on a Q4/Q4 basis. We have also cut our growth forecasts elsewhere—including in Europe and China—but generally more modestly. A less exceptional US growth outlook combined with a real exchange rate that still stands 20% above its long-term average implies a lot of downside for the dollar.
14 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Jan Hatzius and others
China Strategy: Self-help is the best defense
We further cut our 12m targets for MSCI China/CSI300 to 75/4300 (from 81/4500), reflecting new GS forecasts and assumptions of a 125% effective US tariff rate on Chinese imports, 4% GDP growth (from 4.5%) and 14.5% broad deficit spending to GDP ratio in China, and modest Rmb depreciation pressures.
14 April 2025 | Research | Portfolio Strategy - Kinger Lau, CFA and others
Also see: Asian Equity Perspectives Factoring lower China growth into our views
Although President Trump rolled back reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday, the effective US tariff rate is still slated to rise by 15pp as Trump aims to incentivize domestic production and return manufacturing jobs to the US. In this Global Economic Comment, we examine the lessons from history and academic studies to help evaluate whether the administration will succeed in reviving domestic manufacturing employment.
13 April 2025 | Research | Economics - Jan Hatzius and others
Commodities Outlook: Time to Hedge Recession [Replay] (14th April 2025)
Also see:
Asia in Focus: More Fiscal Expansion to Lean Against the Tariff Headwinds
Asia in Focus: How Easily Can US Importers Pivot Away from Chinese Suppliers?
China: US tariffs on China jump to 125%; Lowering real GDP growth forecasts
Oil Analyst: Still Downside Risks to Oil Prices
Precious Comment: Upgrading Our Year-End Gold Price Forecast to $3,700/toz; Hedge Recession Risk With Gold
GOAL: Global Opportunity Asset Locator: Remain defensive tactically as markets reprice stagflation risks
Global FX Trader: Dollar Wreckoning Global Rates Trader: Aftershocks
Global Credit Trader: Pressing pause is not a reset
Natural Gas: US Tariffs Soften LNG Market; We Lower Our TTF forecast, Maintain Henry Hub View
Webcast replays
Research Unplugged: Bear Market Anatomy – the path and shape of the bear market
Tariffs and Markets: Our View from DC and the Trading Floor
Cross Asset Strategy: Risk Appetite Collapse
Global Markets: Trading the Trade Policy Agenda
key earnings
Eric Shen

China Consumer Staples: IMF industry outlook and case study on new birth policy
While the high-level nationwide policy on new birth subsidies is still under drafting, we believe the policy remains an important topic for the Chinese government as mentioned in the 2025 Government Work Report. The anticipation by the market has been enhanced post the birth and childcare subsidies announced by Hohhot government on Mar 13, and some cities/regions have followed suit afterwards (Yiwu, Nanwan community of Guangzhou). In this report, we update our IMF industry outlook in a more positive direction (expect normalizing volume declines and continued ASP improvement) based on our recent high frequency tracker and our population model, and conducted case studies on Japan/South Korea's historical new birth subsidy policies.
While Feihe's share price pulled back 5% post its 2024 results miss due to lower one-offs, including gov't grants, and low-margin adult nutrition sales caused by an oversupply of raw milk, our fundamental view on the shares is now more positive, considering: 1) a steadier IMF industry outlook in 2025-27E (see here); 2) Feihe's strong market share presence in both offline and online channels, with solid progress in penetrating higher-tier regions; and, 3) a more robust margin outlook supported by Feihe's continued premiumization strategy. Accordingly, we upgrade Feihe from Neutral to Buy, with our new 12m TP at HK$7.4 ($4.8 prior).
See also:
A2 Milk Co. (ATM.NZ): Raising sales/earnings on CL market share gain amidst an improved IMF backdrop (Lisa Deng)
China Consumer Staples: Nielsen China infant formula (Jan-Feb '25): Offline sales decline narrowed to -2% yoy; Yili gaining share (Leaf Liu)
China Consumer | Hong Kong
14 Apr 2025 | Research | Equity - Leaf Liu and others
Private Tech tour
- Company HighlightsHDFC Bank (HDBK.BO): Savings rate revised down; Reflects confidence in liquidity & deposit accretion; Supports margins; reiterate Buy14 Apr 2025 | 7:51pm| 8pg| Research | Equity-Rahul Jain and othersYum China Holdings (YUMC): 1Q25 preview: Still some SSSG decline in the near term, but expect solid margin performance to continue; Buy14 Apr 2025 | 9:51pm| 11pg| Research | Equity-Michelle Cheng and othersPfizer Inc. (PFE): Sellside Call Following Danu Discontinuation Underscores A Wide Aperture On The Company's Strategy In Obesity15 Apr 2025 | 1:30am| 7pg| Research | Equity-Asad Haider, CFA and othersLVMH Moet-Hennessy Louis Vuitton (LVMH.PA): Post 1Q25: Sales miss with -3% cFX decline (VA cons +1%); PT to €630 (was €725)15 Apr 2025 | 7:08am| 16pg| Research | Equity-Louise Singlehurst and othersChugai Pharmaceutical (4519.T): First Take: Pfizer to discontinue development of danuglipron, a competing obesity drug14 Apr 2025 | 11:03pm| 6pg| Research | Equity-Akinori Ueda, Ph.D. and othersNext (NXT.L): Strong international growth, UK market outperformance drive ongoing momentum, with improving supply chain inputs; upgrade to Buy15 Apr 2025 | 3:14am| 19pg| Research | Equity-Richard Edwards and others
- Industry HighlightsSingapore Real Estate: Revising base case and running bear-case scenario analysis on potential tariff impact14 Apr 2025 | 7:07pm| 16pg| Research | Equity-Xuan Tan, CFA and othersASEAN Technology: Internet: Indonesia TMT Tour 2025 - Key Takeaways14 Apr 2025 | 6:41pm| 14pg| Research | Equity-Pang Vittayaamnuaykoon and othersChina Banks: Strong credit/TSF growth in Mar; some banks pre-announced positive 1Q revenue growth; tariff impact a key focus14 Apr 2025 | 1:30pm| 7pg| Research | Equity-Shuo Yang, Ph.D. and othersAmericas Technology: Internet: US Digital Ad Q1'25 Preview: Assessing the Shifting Operating Landscape & Analyzing the Industry Debates12 Apr 2025 | 5:41am| 46pg| Research | Equity-Eric Sheridan and othersTaiwan Automation: Solid demand from auto/battery and FA insourcing in China, despite low visibility going into 2H due to tariffs; Buy AirTAC14 Apr 2025 | 1:01pm| 12pg| Research | Equity-Chao Wang and othersAmericas Lodging: Where to invest in Lodging amidst macro uncertainty; CHH to Buy, H to Sell, MAR and HLT to Neutral14 Apr 2025 | 3:59pm| 29pg| Research | Equity-Lizzie Dove and others
- PORTFOLIO STRATEGYUS Weekly Kickstart: Low liquidity is contributing to high equity market volatility12 Apr 2025 | 5:37am| 24pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-David J. Kostin and othersCorporate Macroscope: A Macro Guide to the Micro World11 Apr 2025 | 11:27pm| 50pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Peter Oppenheimer and othersGlobal Weekly Kickstart: Global markets rebound on reciprocal tariffs pause14 Apr 2025 | 10:24pm| 21pg| Research | Portfolio Strategy-Guillaume Jaisson and others
- OPTIONSOptimal Overwrites this week (14-Apr-25)14 Apr 2025 | 10:03pm| 16pg| Research | Options-Rohith Medarametla and othersTrade Close: Close Options Recommendation on GM14 Apr 2025 | 6:46pm| 5pg| Research | Options-John Marshall and othersPortfolio Hedging Toolkit (Apr-2025): Hedging lessons from the recent selloff14 Apr 2025 | 5:01pm| 26pg| Research | Options-Arun Prakash, CFA and others
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