PBOC’s New Tools May Spur Big Shift in How It Manages Money
央行的新工具可能会促使其在资金管理方面发生重大转变

China’s central bank chief hinted at a blueprint for a new toolkit that could open the door to its biggest policy overhaul in years, as officials try to bolster growth in the world’s No.2 economy.
中国央行行长暗示了一项新工具包的蓝图，可能会打开多年来最大的政策改革之门，官员们正试图支持世界第二大经济体的增长。

Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People’s Bank of China, gave the clearest signal yet that the authority may start trading government bonds in the secondary market, during a speech in Shanghai on Wednesday. That shift has the potential to rewire how the central bank injects money into the economy and regulate liquidity.
中国人民银行行长潘功胜在周三上海的讲话中发出了迄今为止最明确的信号，表明该机构可能开始在二级市场交易政府债券。这一转变有可能重塑央行向经济注入资金和调控流动性的方式。

Pan also hinted at interest-rate reform, signaling the bank will consider moving to using a single short-term rate to guide markets. That could reduce the importance of the current one-year policy rate known as the medium-term lending facility, introduced a decade ago.
潘还暗示了利率改革的兴趣，表明央行将考虑转向使用单一短期利率来引导市场。这可能会降低目前被称为中期借贷便利的一年期政策利率的重要性，该政策利率是十年前引入的。

The PBOC is also considering narrowing the interest rate corridor within which market rates are allowed to fluctuate, to signal a clearer policy target, he added.
央行还在考虑缩小市场利率允许波动的利率走廊，以传递更清晰的政策目标。

“This clearly indicates a reform in monetary policy objectives and instruments over the next few years,” said Xing Zhaopeng, senior China strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. It would be the “biggest reform” since 2014, he added, referring to when the MLF was introduced to funnel money to commercial and policy banks.
澳大利亚和新西兰银行集团高级中国策略师邢兆鹏表示：“这清楚地表明了未来几年货币政策目标和工具的改革。”他补充说，这将是自 2014 年以来的“最大改革”，指的是引入中期借贷便利（MLF）以向商业和政策银行注入资金。

Any changes will take time and have gradual impact on the markets, Xing said in a report, noting the need for China’s interest-rate system to be more based on market forces rather than determined by authorities.
辛格在一份报告中表示，任何变化都需要时间，并会逐渐影响市场，他指出中国利率体系需要更多地基于市场力量，而不是由当局决定。

China’s 10-year government bond yield inched up slightly as Pan spoke, before heading back down to close 2 basis points lower at 2.24% in the afternoon. The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.28 per dollar.
中国 10 年期政府债券收益率在潘讲话时略微上涨，然后在下午回落，收盘时比前一日下降 2 个基点，为 2.24%。离岸人民币兑美元保持在 7.28 水平基本不变。

Bond trading would give the PBOC a new tool that’s seen as more effective in managing liquidity than current instruments, because it impacts a broader swathe of market participants. It would also bolster the bank’s ability to help the government raise money to fund investment and other spending to support the economy.
债券交易将为央行提供一种被视为比当前工具更有效管理流动性的新工具，因为它影响了更广泛的市场参与者。这也将增强银行帮助政府筹集资金以支持经济投资和其他支出的能力。

That’s needed now more than ever as local authorities’ finances become increasingly strained, crimping their ability to help an economy challenged by deflation and a property downturn.
这是现在更为必要的，因为地方政府的财政状况日益紧张，限制了它们帮助一经受通缩和房地产市场下行挑战的经济的能力。

Over the past decade, the PBOC has mainly injected money into the economy by lowering the amount of cash it requires banks to keep in reserve. With that ratio approaching the implied 5% minimum level, as policymakers try to maintain ample liquidity to encourage lending, the central bank has growing reason to find fresh tools.
在过去的十年里，中国人民银行主要通过降低银行必须保留的现金数量来向经济注入资金。随着这一比例接近暗示的 5%最低水平，决策者试图保持充足的流动性以鼓励放贷，央行有越来越多的理由寻找新的工具。

The PBOC last revamped its interest rate framework in 2019, introducing the de facto benchmark lending rate, or the loan prime rate, to make lending rates more market-driven.
中国人民银行上次在 2019 年改革了其利率框架，引入了事实上的基准贷款利率，即贷款市场报价利率，以使贷款利率更加市场驱动。

Pan didn’t clarify whether the PBOC would introduce a new short-term rate, but said a daily tool that allows banks to borrow against their bond holdings — known as the seven-day reverse repo — was already “basically shouldering this role.”
潘没有澄清中国人民银行是否会引入新的短期利率，但表示银行可以利用其债券持有进行借款的日常工具——即七天期逆回购——已经“基本承担了这一角色”。

A shift to prioritizing that more agile rate over the MLF “would allow them to more directly influence short-term market rates,” according to Zhou Hao, chief economist at Guotai Junan International.
根据国泰君安国际首席经济学家周浩的说法，将更加灵活的利率置于 MLF 之上的转变“将使他们能够更直接地影响短期市场利率”。

“The PBOC seems focused on using a range of operational tools to fine-tune monetary conditions, while avoiding the perception of aggressive easing that could fuel inflation or financial stability risks,” Zhou said.
“央行似乎专注于使用一系列操作工具来微调货币条件，同时避免过度宽松的印象，这可能助长通胀或金融稳定风险，”周表示。

Bond Trading 债券交易

The PBOC chief also said the monetary authority, along with the finance ministry, was studying how to implement government bond trading, noting it would be a gradual process. He sought to dispel the idea the central bank was embarking on massive stimulus.
央行行长还表示，货币当局正与财政部一起研究如何实施政府债券交易，指出这将是一个渐进过程。他试图消除央行正在进行大规模刺激的想法。

“Including government bond buying and selling into the monetary policy toolbox doesn’t mean we’ll do quantitative easing,” said Pan, referring to the once-unorthodox central bank policy of buying government bonds to stimulate the economy.
“将政府债券的买卖纳入货币政策工具箱并不意味着我们会实施量化宽松政策，”潘表示，指的是一种曾经不寻常的中央银行政策，即购买政府债券以刺激经济。

The remarks come as expectations are growing for the PBOC to start purchases and sales of government bonds, after comments by President Xi Jinping made public this year called for such a tool to regulate liquidity. However, there have been few details on how this may be done and when it may begin.
随着市场对中国人民银行开始购买和出售政府债券的预期日益增长，习近平主席今年公开发表的评论呼吁利用这一工具来调节流动性。然而，目前尚未公布此举可能如何实施以及何时开始的具体细节。

In addition, a months-long bull run in government bonds also dented any need for immediate central bank bond buying. The PBOC has issued repeated warnings against the bond rally over financial risk concerns, and a newspaper it manages said the monetary authority could step in to sell bonds if demand for the haven assets continues to rise.
此外，长达数月的政府债券牛市也削弱了央行立即购买债券的需求。中国人民银行已多次发出警告，对债券涨势引发的金融风险表示担忧，其管理的一家报纸称，如果避险资产需求持续上升，货币当局可能会介入出售债券。

In another sign of the PBOC’s unease with the bond bull run, Pan said the central bank is monitoring bond investments by non-bank financial institutions closely as those who hold large amounts of medium- to long-term bonds could face interest-rate risks. Central banks should learn a lesson from the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank, and correct any pile-up of financial market risks in a timely fashion, he said.
在央行对债券牛市感到不安的另一个迹象中，潘表示，央行正在密切监控非银行金融机构的债券投资，因为持有大量中长期债券的机构可能面临利率风险。他表示，央行应该从硅谷银行的崩溃中吸取教训，并及时纠正任何金融市场风险的积累。

Many economists argued China wouldn’t embark on QE in the short term, as interest rates are still well above zero and market demand for government bonds is strong.
许多经济学家认为中国短期内不会实施量化宽松政策，因为利率仍远高于零，并且市场对政府债券的需求强劲。

“It is encouraging for the PBOC to bring forth the discussion of sovereign bond trading. QE or not, the potential participation of PBOC is likely to improve market liquidity,” said Wee Khoon Chong, senior APAC strategist at BNY Mellon in Hong Kong.
中国银行的讨论主权债券交易是令人鼓舞的。不管是不是 QE，中国银行的潜在参与可能会改善市场流动性，”纽约梅隆银行香港高级亚太策略师 Wee Khoon Chong 表示。

Pan signaled there is more room to ease monetary policy as other economies are pivoting to cut rates this year. The appreciation momentum of the dollar is weakening, which will help keep the yuan stable and expand the room for China’s monetary policy, he said.
潘表示，随着其他经济体今年转向降息，货币政策还有更多的宽松空间。他说，美元升值势头减弱，这将有助于保持人民币稳定并扩大中国货币政策的空间。

He also fueled speculations the LPR will be lowered in coming months by saying that some banks’ quotes of the rate significantly deviated from the actual best lending rate they offer to clients. The PBOC will work to improve the quality of such quotes to better reflect the lending market’s rate levels, he said.
他还通过表示，一些银行的利率报价与他们向客户提供的实际最佳贷款利率存在显著偏差，进一步加剧了未来几个月 LPR 将下调的猜测。他表示，央行将努力改善这类报价的质量，以更好地反映贷款市场的利率水平。