Q4 2024 Tesla Production & Delivery Estimates, Update #3

3 天前

16 December 2024, Update #3:

Hi everyone. Based on the latest data, my Q4 delivery estimate has increased to 498,000 units, up from 488,000 in the last update, mainly due to stronger-than-expected sales in China.

Tesla is approaching the 500,000 mark and has a real chance of surpassing it. If they do, it will be the first time they deliver 500,000 cars in a single quarter, breaking the current record of 484,507 units set in Q4 last year.

However, even hitting 500,000 wouldn't be enough to avoid a year-over-year decline. Tesla would need 514,925 deliveries this quarter to surpass last year's total, though most Tesla followers would still view 500,000 as a solid result.

Looking Ahead to 2025:

2025 is shaping up to be even more challenging as Trump plans to eliminate the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicles. This change would effectively increase the price of all Model 3 and Model Y cars in the U.S. by $7,500 for most buyers. Additionally, Trump is aiming to end requirements for automakers to produce a certain percentage of Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs), which could affect the regulatory credits Tesla currently sells to other automakers.

Tesla Delivery Estimates for Q4 2024:

  • My Estimate: 498,000

  • Analyst Consensus: 511,000 

 

Spreadsheet:

Feel free to check out the spreadsheet. I just updated it today with the latest data. Here are the links:

  • Delivery Table: This tab shows the 2023 and 2024 delivery tables side by side. There are three versions of each table: one grouped by model and then by factory, another grouped by factory and then by model, and a simpler table that doesn’t include the factory.

  • Delivery Charts: This tab features bar charts for deliveries in each region to provide context for the current quarter.

  • Production Table: This tab shows the 2023 and 2024 production tables side by side for easy comparison.

  • Production Charts: This tab includes bar charts for production numbers by model and factory.

Changes Since the Last Update:

My delivery estimate for Q4 has increased by 10,000 units, even though my estimate for U.S. deliveries dropped by more than 8,000 units.

The first table shows my previous estimate from November 24, 2024, the second shows my current estimate, and the third one shows the differences.

USA: I reduced my estimate by 8,398 units due to the latest production and inventory data.

Europe: I increased my estimate by 2,494 units based on November registration numbers from all countries. I’m also monitoring the daily and weekly December registrations from most European countries.

China: I increased my estimate by 14,553 units based on the latest weekly car insurance data.

Analyst Consensus:

The analyst consensus currently stands at 511,000, but this number doesn't accurately predict where Tesla's actual deliveries will end up. Tesla always aims to exceed the consensus, though they don’t always succeed. For instance, here are four quarters where the analyst consensus was notably higher than actual deliveries:

Earlier in the quarter, there was a real chance that deliveries could fall well below the consensus. Fortunately, stronger-than-expected sales in China, thanks to Tesla's recent promotion, have improved the outlook.

China Sales:

On 25 November 2024, Tesla China introduced a ¥10,000 Yuan ($1,374 USD) discount for the Model Y. See the news article here. This came on top of the existing ¥20,000 Yuan "Cash for Clunkers" government incentive for trading in an old gasoline car for a new EV. Both incentives expire at the end of December. Tesla is also offering 5-year, 0% financing with no money down for Model 3 and Model Y purchases in China.

This ¥10,000 incentive was announced one day after my last update on November 24. So my estimate was too low. As a result, I’ve increased my estimates.

The table below shows weekly Tesla sales in China, based on car insurance data. The website here publishes them but they are available on Twitter a few hours earlier every Tuesday morning. The last two columns show what I was expecting in the previous update and what I expect now.

I had estimated 17,300 units for weeks 9 and 10, but the actual numbers came in at 18,730 and 21,930. As a result, I’ve increased my estimates for the remaining weeks from 17,300 to 21,200 units. The next weekly number will be available tomorrow, December 17. 21,200 units would be as expected.

Here’s my monthly table for China. It includes monthly numbers released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). Domestic deliveries were 40,485 in October and 73,490 in November. Production was 76,622 in October and 87,087 in November.

For Q4, I estimate 210,231 domestic deliveries for Model 3 and Model Y combined, which would be a new record. The previous record was 181,883 in Q3 2024. These numbers only include Model 3 and Model Y, not Model S or X.

Including Model S/X, the numbers are expected to be as follows. The first chart shows quarterly and the second one shows yearly deliveries. You can see how strong this quarter is compared to other quarters.

That said, yearly sales growth has slowed. This year, with 672,000 total sales compared to 610,000 last year, Tesla's growth rate is only 10%. That’s a big drop from 39% growth in 2023 and 37% in 2022. Next year could be even tougher with more competition in the EV market.

Tesla Model 3 vs Xiaomi SU7 sales:

Xiaomi is a Chinese manufacturer best known for its mobile phones and home electronics. The brand is also well-known in Europe, and the quality of their mobile phones is pretty good. It's similar to Samsung.

They've decided to enter the electric vehicle market, and their first model, the SU7, has been quite successful. Similar to the Model 3 in many aspects, the SU7 has a sportier exterior and a well-equipped interior. Sales of the SU7 began in April this year, so I'm comparing the sales numbers in China from that point onward.

Xiaomi has announced plans to launch another car, the YU7, which is expected to compete with the Model Y, with deliveries expected to begin in July 2025.

This shows the EV market in China could get tougher for Tesla next year. Sadly, Tesla has been slow at updating their cars or bringing out new ones. For example, the Xiaomi SU7 has Giga Casting, a structural battery pack, a head-up display, and a dashboard, but the Model 3 doesn't have any of these. Tesla has been planning to use Giga Casting for the Model 3 but hasn't done it yet.

U.S. Sales:

Tesla is struggling with demand in the US, especially for the Model Y and Cybertruck.

Production at the Giga Texas Factory:

DMV VIN data shows a 56% drop in Cybertruck production rates after November 10.

I estimate Tesla will produce 13,436 Cybertrucks this quarter, down from 14,774 in Q3. Tesla appears to be scaling back production due to weaker demand, which is disappointing because there was a huge reservation list for the Cybertruck. It seems that only a small fraction of those reservations have converted into actual orders. The $80,000 starting price, less range than announced at the reveal event and the loss of the $7,500 tax credit appear to have reduced demand significantly.

Initially, the Cybertruck was expected to qualify for the $7,500 EV tax credit when Tesla made the regular version available at $79,990 in early October. However, for some unknown reason, it has not been approved. The official list of qualifying Teslas on the government website here was last updated on December 4th, and it still doesn’t include the Cybertruck.

Some reservation holders are still hoping the tax credit will be approved, but I think it's unlikely. More likely is that Trump will eliminate the EV tax credit entirely with an executive order on January 20, 2025. Whether this works is unclear since Congress usually needs to approve such a change, but that might not happen until late March 2025.

Either way, demand for the Cybertruck looks weak, and sales could be less than 40,000 units next year.

Model Y Production at Giga Texas:

Unlike the Cybertruck, there’s no sign of a mid-quarter slowdown in Model Y production. Instead, VIN data suggests a consistently low production rate throughout the quarter.

I estimate Giga Texas will produce 22,500 Model Y in Q4, less than half of what was produced in Q1.

Production at the Fremont Factory:

I don’t see anything unusual when looking at the VIN data for Model 3 and Model Y production at the Fremont factory.

The Model 3 and Model Y numbers seem normal to me. The most interesting part is that Model S/X production keeps declining.

Overall, the US market looks weak this quarter and I expect deliveries to be slightly down compared to Q3.

This is surprising since Q4 is usually Tesla’s strongest quarter for U.S. sales. Typically, there’s a 20% bump in Q4 compared to Q3. But in 2023, that increase fell to just 9%, and this year, we may see an actual decline.

If we look at Tesla's yearly sales in the US, it doesn't look great either because this year will be the first time we see a decline in US sales. The quarter isn’t over yet, and sales could improve a little, but they’re unlikely to recover enough to match 2023.

Outlook for 2025

Next year’s US sales might be even more challenging because Trump is expected to cancel the $7,500 EV tax credit. When that happens, all Model 3/Y versions will effectively become $7,500 more expensive.

Based on DMV data, the average sale price of a Model 3 or Model Y in the US was $47,378 in Q3. Buyers currently get an instant $7,500 tax credit at the point of sale. Not all buyers qualify due to income limits, but around 84% do. On average, this means buyers pay $41,078 (47,378 - 7,500 x 0.84) right now. If the tax credit is canceled, the price goes back up to $47,378.

 

I asked Grok to estimate how much sales would drop in this scenario, and it projected an 18.4% decline. For context, about 537,000 Model 3/Y vehicles and 25,000 Model X Long Range AWD qualify for the tax credit this year, totaling 562,000 vehicles. A sales drop of 18.4% would mean a loss of about 103,408 units per year (562,000 x 0.184).

However, it’s possible that Congress’s approval would be needed to cancel the tax credit. If that’s the case, the credit might still be available for Q1 2025, and only three of the four quarters would be affected. That would reduce the estimated loss to 77,556 units (103,408 x 0.75).

However, Tesla could offset some of this loss with a new compact crossover vehicle, a shorter version of the Model Y. In the last Earnings Call, Elon said the following:

Elon: "We are still on track to deliver our affordable models starting in the first half of 2025"

Source: Tesla's Earnings Call on 23 Oct 2024. You can listen to that specific section here.

"The first half of 2025” is a bit vague. It could mean production starts in early April, or it could mean early July. Also, based on the latest rumors, this new vehicle is expected to start at $37,490 without the tax credit.

For comparison, the Model Y currently starts at $44,990, and the Model 3 starts at $42,490 in the US. Neither model has a Standard Range version anymore because those versions used LFP batteries from China that didn’t qualify for the tax credit. So, Tesla discontinued them.

The Model 3 Standard Range was previously priced at $38,990. The new compact vehicle is expected to start at $37,490, meaning that when Elon refers to "more affordable models," he’s talking about a $1,500 price reduction.

I’m not sure how much that’s going to boost sales. But it’s possible there’s a segment of buyers who don’t like the Model 3 or Model Y but might prefer a shorter version of the Model Y. So, let’s hope US sales don’t keep declining next year.

The Potential Cancelation of Regulatory Credits in the US:

In a recent interview published a week ago on YouTube, Donald Trump said he would end the Electric Vehicle mandate on January 20, 2025, with an executive order. He’s talking about Tailpipe Emission Standards, which might affect Tesla's regulatory credits. Tesla benefits from selling Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) credits to other automakers who fail to meet clean vehicle sales quotas. 

ZEV credits are regulated at the state level. California has a unique position due to its Clean Air Act, which sets stricter emissions standards than the federal government. Other states can choose to follow California’s ZEV program. Currently, 16 states participate in the ZEV program.

Historically, the federal government and California have had an agreement allowing California to regulate its own ZEV program. However, the Trump administration might challenge this arrangement, potentially disrupting the current system of vehicle emissions regulations and the associated credit market.

I looked into how Tesla's earnings might be affected if regulatory credits in the US get canceled. Normally, it’s hard to calculate this without knowing where Tesla earns most of its regulatory credits. I would have assumed they made most of it in the US, but apparently, that’s not the case. In the last earnings call, Tesla’s CFO provided rare insight on this:

 Vaibhav Taneja (Chief Financial Officer): We continue to see elevated levels of regulatory credit sales with over $2 billion of revenues so far this year. To expand on this at an industry level, China continues to outperform U.S. and Europe by a factor of three.

A three-to-one ratio means that 75% of the credits come from China, with the remaining 25% coming from the US and Europe combined. Let’s assume Tesla loses 25% of its regulatory credits. If this happens, Tesla’s earnings per share (EPS) would be $2.22 over the last four quarters, down from $2.40, a 7.5% decline.

 

4680 Cell Costs:

Tesla currently gets a tax credit for producing 4680 cells in the U.S. under the Advanced Manufacturing Tax Credit. The credit provides $45 per kWh for U.S.-made solar and battery products. More details about it can be found here.

The Cybertruck’s battery is estimated to be around 122.4 kWh based on EPA data. This means the $45/kWh tax credit saves Tesla $5,508 per Cybertruck. However, if Trump and Congress eliminate this tax credit, the Cybertruck’s cost would increase by $5,508.

Based on my calculation, the Cybertruck Long Range AWD version, which Tesla currently sells for $80,000, costs them $99,000 to build. If the manufacturing tax credit is canceled, production costs would rise to $104,500.

Europe Sales:

Here is my detailed table for Europe. The December numbers are my estimates but most of these countries report daily or weekly registration numbers. Therefore, we already have a lot of data for December.

Germany is expected to have the biggest drop in sales, down 26,413 units from last year. France is next with a drop of 22,530 units. Meanwhile, the Netherlands is expected to have the biggest increase, with sales up by about 9,353 units.

In terms of quarterly sales, this quarter is expected to be stronger than both Q2 and Q3:

In terms of full-year sales, however, this year is expected to end lower than last year:

The data quality for Europe is very good. Therefore, I'm not too worried about estimating Europe sales accurately. Here’s my error rate for Europe over the past 12 quarters. My errors were bigger in the earlier quarters, but the last 6 quarters have been more accurate.

Sales in the ROW (Rest of the World)

Here’s my current calculation for quarterly and yearly sales in this region:

Here is a detailed table that shows the sales numbers for each country in this region. The Q4 numbers are my estimates, while the numbers for previous quarters are the actual numbers reported by each country.

The Q4 estimates are based on October and November registration numbers and how they compare to past trends. Unfortunately, we get almost no data for December for this region before the month ends, which makes it more difficult to estimate than Europe.

Yearly Production Table:

Here is the latest production table for 2024. You can see this next to the 2023 table on the spreadsheet here. My production estimate for Q4 is now 462,175 units.

My estimate for total production this year is 1,776,173 units, compared to 1,845,985 units produced last year. That's 69,812 units or 3.8% less. Most of this drop is due to lower production at the Fremont factory.

Yearly Delivery Table:

Here is the latest delivery table for this year. My estimate for Q4 is now 498,000 units. If you want to see this table and the 2023 tables side by side, you can open the spreadsheet and scroll down.

Here is a more detailed version of the same delivery table that shows the originating factory for deliveries. For example, Canada was getting a lot of Model 3 and Model Y from Giga Shanghai but they switched to Fremont now.

Here is a detailed look at how deliveries this year in each region compare to last year:

Notes: 

  • The Google Sheet for today's update is available here: Q4 2024 Tesla Production & Delivery Estimates.

  • If you find these updates helpful, feel free to recommend them to others. I appreciate your support.

  • This is Patreon-only content. Please don't share anything unless I have tweeted it. Thanks.

  • There is a public page here with lots of information about my error rate in the past. I'm trying to be as transparent as possible about my error rate.

That's all for now. Thank you!

Troy

·

Hi Troy, as per this article Tesla sold 16,692 Cybertrucks in Q3 https://www.forbes.com/sites/brookecrothers/2024/10/15/tesla-cybertruck-sales-surge-in-q3-as-used-price-crashes/ but your spreadsheet is showing only 10,750 Cybertruck for Q3. Any idea? Or, am I reading the data incorrectly?

·

Although, your sum of Model S/X + Cybertruck of 22,915 matches Tesla's Q3 slidedeck of Other models. I know Tesla doesn't give a breakdown between S/X/CT. So, my best guess is your breakdown is too conservative for CT and generous for S/X.

·

Excellent work Troy!

·

Troy, Great work. How confident are you with your estimate for ending inventory in the U.S.? How much do you think it could be off, either too high or too low?

创作者

·

Inventory in the U.S. is dropping fast. There was a big drop in the last 48 hours. See the chart here: https://tesla-info.com/blog/inventory-stats-regional/US?q=2 I could increase US sales by up 5,000 units more assuming all Model 3/Y inventory will be gone. However, the weekly China number released today was 2,748 units lower than I expected, and there are still two more weeks to go. So, the two changes cancel out each other and 498K still looks very good. I plan to post two more updates. One will be on December 31st because we’ll get a new weekly China number that day. Another will be in a week and I’ll also get new VIN data for that update. The big unknown is Cybertruck deliveries in the US.

·

Hello Troy, I think Europe is a bit too high as many countries just shut down during Christmas And why France is so high after that incentives were cut at the end of November? https://media.roole.fr/transition/voiture-propre/bonus-ecologique-ce-qui-va-changer-en-2024#:~:text=Le%20d%C3%A9cret%20fixant%20les%20nouvelles,000%20euros%20en%20jusque%2Dl%C3%A0.

·

Hello Troy, thank you for the great analysis! 2 points of criticism! 1. History suggests a sharp drop in deliveries in China from week 49/50... 2023 was an exception! 2. According to my information, the dealine for the China subsidy is January 15, 2025! My guess is that weeks 51-52 are more realistic at 9,000 - 15,000! There is 0 order lead time! Europe: I think that in France the subsidy cap will push small car purchases in 12/24, the Netherlands and Belgium will perhaps increase by 50%! I see more of a drop in the UK, as 11/24 was only the balance to 10/24! If you adjust for the peak in the UK, 30,000 deliveries in Europe cannot be beaten in my opinion!

·

Uk is already higher than Dec. About the Belgium and the Netherlands was not there that incentives disappeared in December?

·

Thanks Troy! Tesla China deliveries were just out at 18,452. Does that change your view of China in terms of expecting 21k per week?

创作者

·

I checked the numbers released today. 496,000 to 499,000 looks most likely. Model Y inventory in the US is going down rapidly. See https://tesla-info.com/blog/inventory-stats-regional/US?q=2 The biggest challenge is estimating Cybertruck deliveries in the US and Canada.

·

I doubt the new model will spike significant sales. It will probably cannibalize Model 3 / Model Y sales again. Not the prettiest car!

·

Troy, regarding ZEV credits and the CFO comment, I think it means US is 1, EU is 1 and China is 3 for China being 3/5 or 60% with rounding could be just ovver 50%.

创作者

·

I asked ChatGPT and Grok, and they both split it as 75% for China and 25% for the rest based on this quote: "We continue to see elevated levels of regulatory credit sales with over $2 billion of revenues so far this year. To expand on this at an industry level, China continues to outperform U.S. and Europe by a factor of three."

·

RoW sales have been running in place since Q2 2023, and have really fallen off in Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan and South Korea while being offset by jumps in other markets. Could Tesla see falling RoW sales in 2025?

·

With a PE of 125 and a CEO that is doing various side-quests, I'm not so sure that Tesla's current valuation is accurate, but public opinion makes it sound like it is. Thank you Troy for your down to earth analysis! "You're neither right nor wrong because other people agree with you. You're right because your facts are right and your reasoning is right"

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