泰国可能会告诉我们很多关于未来货币的信息

The writer is a professor at Cornell University, senior fellow at Brookings and author of The Future of Money
作者是康奈尔大学的教授，布鲁金斯学会的高级研究员，《货币的未来》一书的作者

An intriguing window into the future of money and how central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) might be used has opened up in Thailand. This future holds promise but has many hazards as well. Countries barrelling towards it, and especially their citizens, should give it careful thought.
在泰国，一个引人入胜的窗口展示了货币的未来以及中央银行数字货币（CBDC）可能的使用方式。这个未来充满希望，但也存在许多风险。快速迈向这一未来的国家，尤其是他们的公民，应该对此进行仔细思考。

Fulfilling an election promise, the Thai government has initiated a programme to distribute money to low-income households through digital wallets. About 50mn Thais who fall below certain income and savings thresholds will get about $280 each, roughly half of monthly per capita income. This will temporarily boost household consumption and GDP but at a significant fiscal cost and without doing much to tackle deep-rooted problems, including low investment which is holding back growth.
为了兑现选举承诺，泰国政府启动了一项通过数字钱包向低收入家庭分发资金的计划。大约 5000 万泰国人因收入和储蓄低于某些门槛，将获得约 280 美元，约为人均月收入的一半。这将暂时提升家庭消费和国内生产总值，但代价高昂，并且对解决深层次问题（包括抑制增长的低投资）没有太大帮助。

The Bank of Thailand, the Thai central bank, has conducted pilot tests for a digital baht but has not formally rolled out the CBDC. Still, digital wallets to store money and use it for transactions are widely prevalent in Thailand. Adding a CBDC as a payment option is straightforward.
泰国中央银行——泰国银行，已对数字铢进行了试点测试，但尚未正式推出 CBDC。不过，数字钱包在泰国广泛普及，用于存储资金和进行交易。将 CBDC 作为支付选项的添加非常简单。

The Bank of Thailand and other central banks experimenting with CBDCs assert that it would coexist with physical currency. But the convenience of digital payments, and the costs and hassles to consumers and businesses of handling paper money and coins, foretell the demise of cash as a means of payment.
泰国银行和其他中央银行正在试验 CBDC，声称它将与实物货币共存。但数字支付的便利性，以及消费者和企业处理纸币和硬币的成本和麻烦，预示着现金作为支付手段的消亡。

The Thai transfer programme already has some features of a CBDC. It is well targeted, with the funds channelled to poorer individuals who would benefit more and are likely to spend the money rather than save it. The funds go directly to individuals, reducing the inevitable corruption when money is channelled through public agencies.
泰国转账计划已经具备了一些中央银行数字货币（CBDC）的特征。该计划目标明确，资金直接流向更贫困的个人，这些人将受益更多，并且更可能花费这笔钱而不是储蓄。资金直接发放给个人，减少了通过公共机构转移资金时不可避免的腐败问题。

The funds have to be spent within six months, an excellent way to stimulate consumption and limit “leakage” into savings, which would not immediately boost economic activity. The funds can only be spent at authorised small shops within the local area of a recipient.
这些资金必须在六个月内使用，这是刺激消费和限制“流失”到储蓄中的一种优秀方式，因为这不会立即推动经济活动。这些资金只能在受助者所在地区的授权小商店消费。

A CBDC offers similar possibilities, including targeting government transfers, and more. In addition to expiry dates, consumption can be stimulated by exposing CBDC balances to negative interest rates that discourage saving. Such negative interest rates, easy to administer with computer code that shrinks balances at a pre-announced rate, are unlikely to work in an economy with cash. After all, cash offers a zero interest rate, which certainly beats a negative interest rate.
CBDC 提供了类似的可能性，包括针对政府转移等。除了到期日外，通过将 CBDC 余额暴露于抑制储蓄的负利率，可以刺激消费。这种负利率通过计算机代码轻松管理，以预先宣布的速度缩减余额，在有现金的经济中不太可能奏效。毕竟，现金提供零利率，这无疑优于负利率。

The transfer of money under the Thai programme is selective. Criminals and others with a record of committing fraud are not eligible, while merchants with spotty records cannot participate in the programme. The funds cannot be used for purchasing products such as alcohol, cigarettes, and marijuana or for online shopping.
泰国计划下的资金转移是有选择性的。犯罪分子和有欺诈记录的人不符合资格，而记录不良的商家也无法参与该计划。资金不能用于购买酒精、香烟、大麻等产品或进行在线购物。

These limitations seem entirely defensible but also show how easily digital money can be subverted for social engineering purposes. The Thai government has decided that only worthy individuals can benefit from the programme, must spend the funds in specific areas and cannot purchase products deemed undesirable. It is not hard to envision a future in which CBDC usage is restricted to “good” citizens and “acceptable” expenditures, as deemed by the government.
这些限制似乎完全可以辩护，但也显示了数字货币如何容易被颠覆以用于社会工程目的。泰国政府已决定，只有值得的人才能从该计划中受益，必须在特定领域花费资金，并且不能购买被认为不受欢迎的产品。很容易想象一个未来，CBDC 的使用被限制在政府认为的“良好”公民和“可接受”支出之内。

The digital funds cannot in principle be exchanged for cash or other types of money. But one can well imagine secondary markets where people who do not want to spend the money before the expiry date can trade it, probably at a discount, for money with a longer shelf life. Despite the government’s wishes, a recipient of the funds who really wants a smoke might buy approved goods and trade them for cigarettes.
数字资金原则上不能兑换成现金或其他类型的货币。但人们可以想象二级市场，在那里不想在到期日前花费资金的人可以以折扣将其交易为保质期更长的货币。尽管政府希望如此，但真正想抽烟的资金接收者可能会购买批准的商品并将其交易为香烟。

Similarly, CBDCs enable multiple types of monetary units with different characteristics, ostensibly a great way to implement carefully targeted and socially optimal policies. But this could destroy confidence in the integrity of central bank money, which, for all its flaws, at least has a clear and fixed nominal value.
类似地，CBDC 使得多种具有不同特征的货币单位成为可能，显然是实施精确针对和社会最优政策的好方法。但这可能会破坏对中央银行货币完整性的信心，尽管其存在缺陷，但至少具有明确和固定的名义价值。

What is worse, central banks, as purveyors of CBDCs with such features, will be viewed as agents of the government when it comes to surveillance and the execution of a broad range of economic and social policies rather than just monetary policy.
更糟糕的是，中央银行作为具有这些特征的 CBDC 的提供者，在监视和执行广泛的经济和社会政策时，将被视为政府的代理，而不仅仅是货币政策的执行者。

The looming reality of a world of CBDCs holds much promise. But it could dent confidence in central banks and central bank money, which would be a huge price to pay. The Thai experiment will teach us a lot about what the future holds and serves as a warning about how technology might push us towards a dystopian world.
即将到来的 CBDC 世界的现实充满希望。但这可能会削弱人们对中央银行和中央银行货币的信心，这将是一个巨大的代价。泰国的实验将教会我们很多关于未来的事情，并警示我们技术可能如何将我们推向一个反乌托邦的世界。