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China: Official manufacturing PMI edged down but non-manufacturing PMI increased notably in December
中国:官方制造业 PMI 小幅下降,但 12 月份非制造业 PMI 显著上升

31 December 2024 | 10:35AM HKT
2024 年 12 月 31 日 | 上午 10:35 HKT
Research | Economics | By Yuting Yang and others
研究 | 经济学 | 作者:杨玉婷及其他人

Bottom line:  底线:

China's NBS manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1 in December from 50.3 in November. Among the major sub-indexes, the output sub-index decreased the most, followed by the employment sub-index. The NBS non-manufacturing PMI increased to 52.2 in December from 50.0 in November, driven by improved activity in both the services and construction sectors in December.
中国国家统计局制造业采购经理指数(PMI)在 12 月从 11 月的 50.3 降至 50.1。在主要子指数中,产出子指数降幅最大,其次是就业子指数。国家统计局非制造业采购经理指数在 12 月从 11 月的 50.0 上升至 52.2,受益于 12 月服务业和建筑业活动的改善。

Asia-MAP for official manufacturing PMI: 0 (3, 0)

3 out of 5 for relevance to growth
与增长相关性评分为 3 分(满分 5 分)

0 on a scale of -5 to +5 for surprise relative to consensus
在相对于共识的惊讶程度上,0 的评分范围是-5 到+5

Key numbers:  关键数字:

Official NBS manufacturing PMI: 50.1 in December (GS forecast: 50.2; Bloomberg consensus: 50.2), vs. 50.3 in November.
官方 NBS 制造业 PMI:12 月为 50.1(高盛预测:50.2;彭博共识:50.2),与 11 月的 50.3 相比。

Official non-manufacturing PMI: 52.2 in December (GS forecast: 50.2; Bloomberg consensus: 50.2), vs. 50.0 in November.
官方非制造业 PMI:12 月为 52.2(高盛预测:50.2;彭博共识:50.2),而 11 月为 50.0。

Main points:  要点:

1. The NBS manufacturing PMI headline index fell to 50.1 in December from 50.3 in November, suggesting the activity in the manufacturing sector continued to improve but at a slower pace (Exhibit 1). Among major sub-indexes of NBS manufacturing PMI, the output sub-index fell to 52.1 from 52.4, the employment sub-index edged down to 48.1 from 48.2, while the new orders sub-index increased to 51.0 from 50.8. The suppliers' delivery times sub-index increased to 50.9 in December from 50.2 in November, indicating faster deliveries. NBS commented that the output and new orders sub-indexes of non-staple food processing, food and alcoholic beverages, general equipment and electrical machinery sectors were above 54 in December. However, the new orders and output sub-indexes of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, and metal products sectors were below 50 in December.
1. 国家统计局制造业 PMI 总指数在 12 月从 11 月的 50.3 降至 50.1,表明制造业活动持续改善,但增速放缓(见图 1)。在国家统计局制造业 PMI 的主要子指数中,产出子指数从 52.4 降至 52.1,就业子指数从 48.2 小幅下降至 48.1,而新订单子指数从 50.8 上升至 51.0。供应商交货时间子指数在 12 月从 11 月的 50.2 上升至 50.9,表明交货速度加快。国家统计局评论称,12 月非粮食加工、食品和酒类、通用设备和电气机械行业的产出和新订单子指数均超过 54。然而,12 月黑色金属冶炼和轧制加工、金属制品行业的新订单和产出子指数均低于 50。

2. On the trade-related sub-indexes, the new manufacturing export order sub-index increased to 48.3 in December from 48.1 in November. The import sub-index rose to 49.3 in December (vs. 47.3 in November). The raw material inventories sub-index edged up to 48.3 from 48.2, and the finished goods inventories sub-index rose to 47.9 from 47.4. By enterprise size, the PMI of large and small enterprises fell to 50.5 and 48.5 from 50.9 and 49.1, respectively. However, the PMI of medium enterprises rose to 50.7 from 50.0. Price indicators in the NBS manufacturing survey suggest deflationary pressures picked up: the input cost sub-index fell notably to 48.2 (vs. 49.8 in November), and the output prices sub-index declined to 46.7 (vs. 47.7 in November) (Exhibit 2).
2. 在与贸易相关的子指数中,新的制造业出口订单子指数在 12 月份从 11 月份的 48.1 上升至 48.3。进口子指数在 12 月份上升至 49.3(相比 11 月份的 47.3)。原材料库存子指数从 48.2 微升至 48.3,成品库存子指数从 47.4 上升至 47.9。按企业规模划分,大型企业和小型企业的 PMI 分别从 50.9 和 49.1 降至 50.5 和 48.5。然而,中型企业的 PMI 从 50.0 上升至 50.7。国家统计局制造业调查中的价格指标显示出通缩压力加大:投入成本子指数显著下降至 48.2(相比 11 月份的 49.8),而输出价格子指数下降至 46.7(相比 11 月份的 47.7)(附录 2)。

3. The official non-manufacturing PMI (comprised of the services and construction sectors) increased to 52.2 in December (vs. 50.0 in November), driven by improved activity in both the services and construction sectors in December (Exhibit 3). The services PMI rose to 52.0 from 50.1. According to the survey, the PMIs of air transportation, telecommunications, insurance, and monetary and financial services industries were above 60, while the PMIs of hotel, restaurants, household service industries were below 50 in December. The construction PMI increased notably to 53.2 in December (vs. 49.7 in November). NBS commented that some companies have sped up construction progress ahead of the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday.
3. 官方非制造业 PMI(包括服务业和建筑业)在 12 月份上升至 52.2(相比 11 月份的 50.0),这得益于 12 月份服务业和建筑业活动的改善(见图 3)。服务业 PMI 从 50.1 上升至 52.0。根据调查,航空运输、电信、保险以及货币和金融服务行业的 PMI 均超过 60,而酒店、餐饮和家庭服务行业的 PMI 在 12 月份则低于 50。建筑业 PMI 在 12 月份显著上升至 53.2(相比 11 月份的 49.7)。国家统计局评论称,一些公司在即将到来的春节假期前加快了施工进度。

Exhibit 1: NBS manufacturing PMI inched down in December

Source: NBS

Exhibit 2: Price indicators suggest deflationary pressures picked up notably in December

Source: NBS

Exhibit 3: NBS non-manufacturing PMI rose in December

Source: NBS

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