China Skeptics Are Gearing Up for a Sudden Rebound in Stocks
中国怀疑论者正为股市突然反弹做准备

The China stock rout has run so deep and long that even some of the skeptics are preparing for at least a short-term bounce.
中国股市的溃败已经持续了很长时间，就连一些持怀疑态度的人也在为至少出现短期反弹做准备。

Bell Asset Management Ltd., a long-time bear, is now scouring the market as stocks are “just so cheap,” while Abrdn Plc is looking to gain exposure via options. JPMorgan Asset Management and BlackRock Inc. see potential for a rebound as valuations have become attractive.
贝尔资产管理有限公司（Bell Asset Management Ltd.）是一家长期看跌的公司，由于股票 "实在太便宜了"，该公司目前正在市场上搜寻股票，而 Abrdn Plc 则希望通过期权获得风险敞口。摩根大通资产管理公司（JPMorgan Asset Management）和贝莱德公司（BlackRock Inc.

Their views underscore a tactical shift in global investors’ sentiment toward China. While the country’s slowing economy and policy uncertainties have prompted long-term global funds to retreat en masse, at least some investors see potential for a technical rebound at such cheap valuations.
他们的观点凸显了全球投资者对中国情绪的战术性转变。虽然中国经济放缓和政策不确定性已促使全球长期基金大举撤退，但至少有一些投资者认为，在估值如此低廉的情况下，中国经济有可能出现技术性反弹。

Investors are aware that when the right catalysts kick in — such as the late 2022 Covid reopening — the market can rally hard. Signs are emerging that options traders are gearing up for that possibility. Call options on a large US-listed Chinese stock ETF surged last week even as key equity benchmarks stumbled. The MSCI China Index has lost nearly 5% in 2024 after a third straight annual loss.
投资者意识到，一旦出现合适的催化剂--如 2022 年底科威德重启--市场就会大幅反弹。有迹象表明，期权交易商正在为这种可能性做准备。上周，在美国上市的大型中国股票 ETF 看涨期权大涨，而主要股票基准却跌跌不休。2024 年，MSCI 中国指数连续第三年下跌，跌幅接近 5%。

Ned Bell, chief investment officer for Bell Asset Management who has avoided Chinese stocks for nearly a decade, is considering buying large tech stocks including Tencent Holdings Ltd. as regulatory woes ease.
近十年来一直回避中国股票的贝尔资产管理公司（Bell Asset Management）首席投资官奈德-贝尔（Ned Bell）正在考虑买入包括腾讯控股有限公司（Tencent Holdings Ltd.）在内的大型科技股，因为监管困境有所缓解。

“We are less bearish and we are finding value selectively,” said Bell, whose Melbourne-based firm manages A$5.1 billion ($3.4 billion) in global equities. The last time he owned a mainland stock was in December 2014.
贝尔说："我们不那么看空了，我们正在有选择性地寻找价值，"贝尔的公司总部位于墨尔本，管理着51亿澳元（约合34亿美元）的全球股票。他上一次持有内地股票是在2014年12月。

Bell’s cautious approach shows how Chinese stocks have turned into a sort of global pariah in recent years as money managers doubt their investment worthiness.
贝尔的谨慎态度表明，近年来随着资金经理们对中国股市的投资价值产生怀疑，中国股市已成为一种全球贱民。
The market missed out on last year’s worldwide rally as tensions with the US ratcheted up and Beijing showed only lukewarm response to boosting the economy.
由于与美国的紧张关系加剧，中国政府对提振经济的反应冷淡，中国股市错过了去年的全球反弹行情。

Yet the selloff has pushed valuations to near historical lows. The MSCI China Index, down roughly 60% from its 2021 peak, trades at less than nine times its forward earnings estimates. That compares with a reading of 22 for MSCI India and 19 for the S&P 500.
然而，大跌已将估值推至接近历史低点。摩根士丹利资本国际中国指数（MSCI China Index）从2021年的峰值下跌了约60%，其远期收益预期不到9倍。相比之下，MSCI 印度指数为 22 倍，标准普尔 500 指数为 19 倍。

Read: Wall Street’s China Bulls Seek Redemption After a Humbling Year
阅读：华尔街的中国牛市在经历了令人沮丧的一年后寻求救赎

JPMorgan Asset Management, which has a neutral view on the country’s equities, anticipates a rebound once the earnings cycle turns around.
摩根大通资产管理公司（JPMorgan Asset Management）对中国股市持中性观点，预计一旦盈利周期转好，中国股市将出现反弹。

“Valuation is certainly very attractive and positioning seems to be pretty light,” said Sylvia Sheng, global multi-asset strategist at the money manager. “We have seen stabilization in the macro momentum, but we think gradually that will lead to stabilization in the earnings reduction trend.”
"估值当然非常有吸引力，定位似乎也很轻，"该基金经理的全球多重资产策略师西尔维亚-盛（Sylvia Sheng）说。"我们已经看到宏观势头趋于稳定，但我们认为这将逐渐导致盈利下降趋势趋于稳定。"

China’s economy appears to have bottomed out, but the recovery ahead is set to be slow and bumpy. Data due Wednesday will likely show the economy expanded 5.2% for the entirety of last year, hitting its growth goal. There’s been more mixed news recently, with consumer prices falling again but exports showing signs of stabilization.
中国经济似乎已经触底，但未来的复苏将是缓慢而崎岖的。本周三公布的数据可能会显示，去年全年中国经济增长了 5.2%，达到了增长目标。最近的消息喜忧参半，消费者价格再次下跌，但出口却出现了企稳迹象。

For many, though, building direct exposure remains a risky bet. Chinese stocks have started the year poorly, ranking among the worst for major global indexes.
不过，对许多人来说，直接投资中国股市仍然是一个高风险的赌注。中国股市今年开局不佳，在全球主要指数中排名最差。

With geopolitical tensions complicating Beijing’s tech ambition and deflationary pressures growing, the market is unlikely to gain its former clout anytime soon.
地缘政治紧张局势使中国政府的科技雄心更加复杂，通货紧缩的压力也在增加，中国股市不可能很快恢复往日的影响力。
Some investors are turning to options to hedge for a potential upswing, given how hopes for a revival last year were dashed again and again.
鉴于去年股市复苏的希望一再破灭，一些投资者开始转向期权对冲，以应对可能出现的上涨行情。

“We were neutral for the last three quarters but we are now starting to see value,” said Louis Luo, head of multi-asset investment solutions for Greater China at Abrdn. “We are thinking about buying some upside protection” in case the stock market surges and weigh on relative performance for emerging market funds, he said.
"Abrdn大中华区多元资产投资解决方案主管路易斯-罗（Louis Luo）说："我们在过去三个季度保持中立，但现在我们开始看到价值。他说，"我们正在考虑购买一些上行保护"，以防股市飙升影响新兴市场基金的相对表现。

Total option traded volume on the iShares China Large-Cap ETF soared to nearly 500,000 contracts last Wednesday, the second spike to such levels in less than a month. The number of calls traded that day was more than double the amount for put contracts.
上周三，iShares 中国大盘 ETF 期权总成交量飙升至近 500,000 份合约，这是不到一个月内第二次飙升至此水平。当天的认购期权交易量是认沽期权交易量的两倍多。

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, a gauge of Chinese stocks trading in Hong Kong, has more outstanding calls than put options.
恒生中国企业指数（Hang Seng China Enterprises Index）是衡量在香港交易的中国股票的指标，该指数的未平仓认购期权多于认沽期权。

Thomas Taw at BlackRock agrees valuations look attractive, but notes China is a “very difficult market.”
贝莱德（BlackRock）的托马斯-陶（Thomas Taw）也认为估值看起来很有吸引力，但指出中国是一个 "非常困难的市场"。

Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter.

Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter.

Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter.
获取 Bloomberg Surillance 新闻通讯。

Make sense of the markets and catch the best on-air moments.

Make sense of the markets and catch the best on-air moments.

Make sense of the markets and catch the best on-air moments.
了解市场，捕捉最佳播出时刻。

*

Signed Up Sign Up Sign Up

By submitting, I agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Service, and to receive offers and promotions from Bloomberg.
提交即表示我同意《隐私政策》和《服务条款》，并同意接收 Bloomberg 提供的优惠和促销信息。

“We are getting to a level where it’s worth having some China exposure tactically in your portfolio and investors still need to be invested in China — but it can be difficult to pick the time when we see some pick up,” said Taw, head of APAC iShares investment strategy at BlackRock Asset Management North Asia.
"贝莱德资产管理公司（BlackRock Asset Management North Asia）亚太区iShares投资策略主管Taw表示："我们正在达到这样一个水平，即值得在投资组合中战术性地持有一些中国风险敞口，投资者仍然需要投资于中国--但很难选择我们看到回暖的时机。
“Most investors are looking at this as a trading market, rather than a secular, long-term market.”
"大多数投资者都将其视为一个交易市场，而不是一个长期的世俗市场。

For those who have held on to their China bets throughout the rout, now may be the time to go bolder.
对于那些在整个经济衰退过程中坚持押注中国的投资者来说，现在或许是更大胆地出手的时候了。

Invesco Ltd. is rotating toward companies it believes will offer earnings growth, and away from stable, dividend-paying companies that it has held in the past few years.
Invesco Ltd.正转向其认为能带来盈利增长的公司，而放弃过去几年持有的稳定、派息的公司。

“In China, we want to go for growth,” said William Yuen, investment director for Invesco in Hong Kong, which is overweight Chinese stocks in its Asia-ex Japan strategies.
"在中国，我们希望追求增长，"Invesco 在香港的投资总监 William Yuen 说，该公司在其亚洲（日本除外）策略中对中国股票的比重偏高。
The asset manager is keen on tech companies after a period of regulatory uncertainty as “companies are in a much clearer operating environment where they understand what they can do,” he said.
他说，在经历了一段监管不确定时期后，该资产管理公司热衷于科技公司，因为 "公司的运营环境更加明朗，他们明白自己能做什么。