Businessweek | The Big Take
商业周刊

Trump on Taxes, Tariffs, Jerome Powell and More
特朗普谈税收、关税、杰罗姆-鲍威尔等问题

It’s late June, and Donald Trump is plotting his next presidency in the gilded offseason isolation of the Mar-a-Lago Club. The adoring club members may have decamped to cooler climates, but Trump is still in a good mood.
现在是六月下旬，唐纳德-特朗普（Donald Trump）正在马阿拉歌俱乐部（Mar-a-Lago Club）金碧辉煌、与世隔绝的休赛期中谋划他的下一任总统任期。崇拜他的俱乐部成员们可能已经去了凉爽的地方，但特朗普的心情依然很好。

Polls show a very tight race between him and President Joe Biden, but his fundraising is through the roof. It’s also now clear his 34 felony convictions haven’t upended the race. A big shock will come two days later, at the first presidential debate, and it will be Biden who’s left reeling. Then a bigger one will arrive on July 13, when Trump narrowly dodges an assassin’s bullet.
民调显示，他与乔-拜登总统之间的竞争十分激烈，但他的筹款却一路高歌猛进。现在也很明显，他的 34 项重罪并没有影响竞选。两天后，在第一场总统辩论中，拜登将给竞选带来巨大冲击。更大的冲击将在 7 月 13 日到来，届时特朗普将险些躲过刺客的子弹。

The Mar-a-Lago sitting room features a soaring red balloon tower dotted with giant gold ones reading “47,” shorthand for the next president—a gift from a local admirer who affixed a card gushing over “the best commander in chief America has ever known.” At Trump’s insistence, a staffer fetches the hot new fashion item he enjoys showing guests: a red MAGA-style cap emblazoned with “Trump Was Right About Everything.”
马阿拉歌起居室里有一座高耸的红色气球塔，上面点缀着巨大的金色气球，上面写着 "47"，是下一任总统的缩写--这是一位当地崇拜者送给特朗普的礼物，他在卡片上盛赞 "美国有史以来最出色的总司令"。在特朗普的坚持下，一名工作人员取来了他喜欢向客人展示的热门新款时尚单品：一顶印有 "特朗普什么都是对的"（Trump Was Right About Everything）字样的红色 MAGA 式帽子。

Outside Mar-a-Lago’s gates, the rest of the world isn’t so sure. There’s worry about what another Trump presidency could portend. Wall Street firms from Goldman Sachs to Morgan Stanley to Barclays have begun warning clients to expect higher inflation as Trump’s odds of recapturing the White House and imposing protectionist trade policies have risen. Giants of the American economy such as Apple, Nvidia and Qualcomm are grappling with how further confrontation with China could affect them and the chips everyone relies on. Democracies across Europe and Asia worry about Trump’s isolationist impulses, his shaky commitment to Western alliances, and his relationships with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. And while polls universally show that American voters favor Trump’s stewardship of the economy over Biden’s, it’s unclear to many exactly what they’ll get if they opt for another round with him.
在马阿拉歌的大门外，世界其他地方并不那么确定。人们担心特朗普再次担任总统会带来什么后果。从高盛（Goldman Sachs）、摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）到巴克莱（Barclays）等华尔街公司都已开始警告客户，随着特朗普重夺白宫和实施贸易保护主义政策的几率上升，预计通胀将上升。苹果、英伟达（Nvidia）和高通（Qualcomm）等美国经济巨头正在努力应对与中国的进一步对抗可能对它们和大家依赖的芯片造成的影响。欧洲和亚洲的民主国家担心特朗普的孤立主义冲动、他对西方联盟动摇的承诺以及他与中国国家主席习近平和俄罗斯总统普京的关系。虽然民意调查普遍显示，美国选民对特朗普的经济管理比拜登更有好感，但许多人并不清楚，如果他们选择与特朗普再战一局，究竟会得到什么。

He waves away such concerns. “Trumponomics,” he says, equates to “low interest rates and taxes.” It’s “tremendous incentive to get things done and to bring business back to our country.” Trump would drill more and regulate less. He’d shut the Southern border. He’d squeeze enemies and allies alike for better trade terms. He’d unleash the crypto industry and rein in reckless Big Tech companies. In short, he’d make the economy great again.
他对这种担忧不屑一顾。他说，"特朗普经济学 "等同于 "低利率和低税收"。这是 "完成工作的巨大动力，能让企业回到我们的国家"。特朗普将加大钻探力度，减少监管。他会关闭南部边境。他会压榨敌人和盟友，以换取更好的贸易条件。他将放开加密货币行业，约束不计后果的大科技公司。总之，他会让经济再次变得伟大。

That’s the sales pitch, anyway. The plain truth is that no one really knows what to expect. So Bloomberg Businessweek went to Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, to press Trump for answers.
不管怎么说，这就是销售宣传。事实是，没有人真正知道该期待什么。因此，《彭博商业周刊》前往佛罗里达州棕榈滩的马阿拉歌酒店，向特朗普追问答案。

In a wide-ranging interview on business and the global economy, he says that, if he wins, he’ll allow Jerome Powell to serve out his term as chair of the Federal Reserve, which runs through May 2026. Trump wants to bring the corporate tax rate to as low as 15%, and he no longer plans to ban TikTok. He’d consider Jamie Dimon, chairman and chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., to serve as secretary of the Department of the Treasury.
在一次关于商业和全球经济的广泛采访中，他表示，如果他获胜，他将允许杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）完成美联储主席的任期，该任期将持续到 2026 年 5 月。特朗普希望将企业税率降至 15%，而且他不再计划禁止 TikTok。他将考虑由摩根大通公司董事长兼首席执行官杰米-戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）担任财政部部长。

Trump is cool to the idea of protecting Taiwan from Chinese aggression and to US efforts to punish Putin for invading Ukraine. “I don’t love sanctions,” he says. He keeps circling back to William McKinley, who he says raised enough revenue through tariffs during his turn-of-the-20th-century presidency to avoid instituting a federal income tax yet never got the appropriate credit.
特朗普对保护台湾免受中国侵略的想法以及美国惩罚普京入侵乌克兰的努力持冷淡态度。"他说："我不喜欢制裁。他不断提到威廉-麦金利（William McKinley），他说麦金利在 20 世纪初担任总统期间通过关税增加了足够的收入，从而避免了征收联邦所得税，但却从未获得相应的荣誉。

And Trump (who has a proclivity to lie) insists he won’t pardon himself if convicted of a federal crime in the three federal cases pending against him: “I wouldn’t consider it.” He may not have to—on July 15, a Trump-appointed federal judge dismissed charges that he mishandled classified documents. (The special counsel swiftly announced he would appeal the decision.)
而特朗普（他有撒谎的倾向）坚称，如果在三起针对他的联邦案件中被判犯有联邦罪，他不会赦免自己："我不会考虑"。7月15日，特朗普任命的联邦法官驳回了对他不当处理机密文件的指控。(特别顾问迅速宣布将对这一判决提出上诉）。

The broad strokes of Trumponomics might not be different from what they were during his first term. What’s new is the speed and efficiency with which he intends to enact them. He believes he understands the levers of power much more deeply now, including the importance of selecting the right people for the right jobs. “We had great people, but I had some people that I would not have chosen for a second time,” he says. “Now, I know everybody. Now, I am truly experienced.”
特朗普经济学的大体思路可能与他第一任期时并无不同。新的是他打算实施这些政策的速度和效率。他认为自己现在对权力杠杆的理解要深刻得多，包括为合适的工作选择合适的人的重要性。"他说："我们曾有过很好的人选，但有些人我不会再选第二次。"现在，我了解每一个人。现在，我真正有了经验。

Trump views his economic message as his best route to trouncing the Democrats in November, with Republicans devoting the opening night of their presidential convention to the theme of “wealth.” He’s betting that his unorthodox agenda of tax cuts, more oil, less regulation, higher tariffs and fewer foreign financial commitments will appeal to enough swing state voters to hand him the election. It’s also a gamble that voters will overlook the negative traits that characterized his first term in the White House: the personnel fights, the 180-degree policy shifts, the 6 a.m. social media pronouncements. And of course there’s the matter of the attempted insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021.
特朗普认为他的经济信息是他在11月击败民主党的最佳途径，共和党人在总统大选开幕之夜专门讨论了 "财富 "主题。他打赌，他的减税、增加石油、减少监管、提高关税和减少对外金融承诺等非正统议程将吸引足够多的摇摆州选民，从而让他赢得选举。这也是一场赌博，赌选民会忽略他在白宫第一任期内的负面特征：人事争斗、180 度的政策转变、早上 6 点在社交媒体上的声明。当然还有 2021 年 1 月 6 日的未遂叛乱事件。

Already, polling shows signs that Black and Hispanic men are shifting to the Republican Party as they tire of historically high prices for food, housing and gas. As many as 20% of Black men now back Trump, though some pundits think those numbers are overstated. Either way, Biden is struggling to sell key voters on his economic record, which includes a very low unemployment rate and rising wages. He’s also facing down panic over his age. Trump could win in November, and many Democratic leaders are increasingly concerned he’ll deliver Republicans control of the House and Senate along with the White House.
民意调查已经显示，有迹象表明黑人和拉美裔男性正在转向共和党，因为他们对食品、住房和汽油价格的历史高位感到厌倦。多达20%的黑人男性现在支持特朗普，但一些学者认为这些数字被夸大了。无论如何，拜登都在努力向主要选民推销自己的经济记录，其中包括极低的失业率和不断增长的工资。他还面临着对自己年龄的恐慌。特朗普可能在11月获胜，许多民主党领导人越来越担心他会让共和党人在控制白宫的同时控制众议院和参议院。

In that case, he’d have unprecedented leverage to shape the US economy, the climate for global businesses and trade with allies. His first term demonstrated that he prefers to work one-on-one, which would give the CEOs and world leaders who have the best relationships with him an advantage while leaving his enemies falling short, and perhaps even fearful of what he’ll do. If one thing stands out from Businessweek’s interview with Trump, it’s that he’s fully aware of this power—and he has every intention of using it.
在这种情况下，他将拥有前所未有的影响力来影响美国经济、全球商业环境以及与盟国的贸易。他的第一个任期表明，他更喜欢一对一的工作方式，这将给与他关系最好的首席执行官和世界领导人带来优势，而他的敌人则会落于下风，甚至可能对他的所作所为感到恐惧。如果说《商业周刊》对特朗普的采访有什么突出之处的话，那就是他充分意识到了这种力量，而且他完全打算利用这种力量。

Trump, in a dark suit and tie, holds court in the cool afternoon darkness of Mar-a-Lago’s chintz-and-gold sitting room, keen as always to play the magnanimous host. He takes it upon himself to order a round of Cokes and Diet Cokes for his visitors, then gets down to explaining how he’d govern if reelected in November.
身着深色西装、打着领带的特朗普在午后凉爽的黑暗中走进马阿拉歌金碧辉煌的起居室，一如既往地热衷于扮演宽宏大量的主人。他主动为来访者点了一轮可乐和健怡可乐，然后开始解释如果 11 月连任，他将如何施政。

Business leaders prize stability and certainty. They didn’t get much of either in Trump’s first presidency. This time around, his campaign is more professionally run, but he hasn’t produced a detailed economic policy agenda to reassure them. The vacuum has generated confusion among those who are planning for a second Trump term.
商界领袖崇尚稳定和确定性。在特朗普的第一任总统任期内，他们在这两方面都没有得到什么。这一次，他的竞选活动更加专业化，但他还没有制定出详细的经济政策议程来让他们放心。这种真空状态让那些为特朗普第二个任期做打算的人感到困惑。

In late April, a few of Trump’s informal policy advisers leaked to the Wall Street Journal an explosive draft proposal to severely curb the independence of the Federal Reserve. It was broadly inferred that Trump had endorsed the idea, which didn’t seem like a stretch given his prior attacks on Powell. In fact, the Trump campaign insisted he’d endorsed neither the proposal nor the leak, and his top campaign brass were furious about it. But the episode was a consequence of Trump’s still-unformed policy, which has left wonks from such think tanks as the Heritage Foundation battling to fill in the details and jockey for influence. Other conservative policy entrepreneurs have been pushing proposals to devalue the dollar or institute a flat tax.
4 月下旬，特朗普的几位非正式政策顾问向《华尔街日报》泄露了一份爆炸性的提案草案，旨在严格限制美联储的独立性。人们普遍推断特朗普已经认可了这一想法，鉴于他之前对鲍威尔的攻击，这似乎并不夸张。事实上，特朗普竞选团队坚称他既没有认可该提案，也没有认可泄密事件，他的竞选高层对此非常愤怒。但这一插曲是特朗普尚未成型的政策造成的后果，它让传统基金会（Heritage Foundation）等智库的专家们争相填补细节，争夺影响力。其他保守派政策企业家一直在推动美元贬值或实行统一税制的提议。

At Mar-a-Lago, Trump makes it clear he’s fed up with the unauthorized freelancing. “There’s a lot of false information,” he complains. He’s eager to set the record straight on several topics.
在马阿拉歌，特朗普明确表示他受够了未经授权的自由职业者。"他抱怨说："有很多虚假信息。他急于在几个话题上澄清事实。

First, there’s Powell. He told Fox News in February that he wouldn’t reappoint the Fed chair; now he states unequivocally that he’ll let Powell finish his term, which would last well into a second Trump administration.
首先是鲍威尔。今年 2 月，他曾告诉福克斯新闻（Fox News），他不会重新任命这位美联储主席；现在，他明确表示，他将让鲍威尔完成任期，这将一直持续到特朗普第二任政府任期结束。

“I would let him serve it out,” Trump says, “especially if I thought he was doing the right thing.”
"我会让他服刑，"特朗普说，"尤其是如果我认为他做的是正确的事情。"

Even so, Trump has thoughts on interest-rate policy, at least in the near term. The Fed, he warns, should abstain from cutting rates before the November election and giving the economy, and Biden, a boost. Wall Street fully expects two interest-rate cuts before the end of the year, including one, crucially, before the election. “It’s something that they know they shouldn’t be doing,” he says.
即便如此，特朗普对利率政策仍有想法，至少在近期是这样。他警告说，美联储应在 11 月大选前放弃降息，为经济和拜登打气。华尔街完全预计今年年底前会有两次降息，其中一次关键是在大选前。"他说："他们知道自己不该这么做。

Next on his mind: inflation. Trump has been endlessly critical of Biden’s stewardship of the economy. But he sees, in the anger generated by high prices and interest rates, an opportunity to woo voters who typically don’t support Republicans, such as Black and Hispanic men. Trump says he’ll bring down prices by opening up the US to more oil and gas drilling. “We have more liquid gold than anybody,” he says.
他的下一个想法是：通货膨胀。特朗普一直在批评拜登对经济的管理。但他认为，从高物价和高利率引发的愤怒中，他有机会争取通常不支持共和党的选民，如黑人和西班牙裔男性。特朗普说，他将通过在美国开放更多的石油和天然气钻井来降低油价。"他说："我们比任何人都拥有更多的流动黄金。

Third is immigration. He believes harsh restrictions are key to boosting domestic wages and employment. He characterizes immigration restrictions as “the biggest [factor] of all” in how he’d reshape the economy, with particular benefits for the minorities he’s eager to win over. “The Black people are going to be decimated by the millions of people that are coming into the country,” he says. “They’re already feeling it. Their wages have gone way down. Their jobs are being taken by the migrants coming in illegally into the country.” (According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the majority of employment gains since 2018 have been for naturalized US citizens and legal residents—not migrants.)
第三是移民。他认为严格的限制是提高国内工资和就业的关键。他将移民限制视为他重塑经济的 "最大[因素]"，尤其是对他急于争取的少数族裔而言。"他说："数以百万计的人涌入这个国家，黑人将因此而锐减。"他们已经感受到了。他们的工资已经大幅下降。他们的工作被非法入境的移民抢走了。(根据美国劳工统计局（US Bureau of Labor Statistics）的数据，自 2018 年以来，就业增长的大部分是入籍美国公民和合法居民，而不是移民）。

Trump’s language turns apocalyptic. “The Black population in this country is going to die because of what’s happened, what’s going to happen to their jobs—their jobs, their housing, everything,” he continues. “I want to stop that.”
特朗普的语言变成了世界末日。"他继续说："这个国家的黑人会因为发生的一切而死亡，他们的工作、住房、一切都会发生变化。"我想阻止这一切。

Drilling for oil aside, Trump hasn’t detailed a plan for lowering prices. His personal conviction that the robust tariffs he’s proposing will produce a US windfall isn’t shared by mainstream economists, who warn that they’ll spur further inflation and amount to a tax increase for US households. A report from the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that his tariff regime would impose an additional annual cost of $1,700 for the average middle-income family. And Oxford Economics, a nonpartisan research group, estimates that Trump’s combination of tariffs, immigration restrictions and extended tax cuts could also increase inflation and slow economic growth. The through line of these policies, says Bernard Yaros, lead US economist at Oxford Economics, is “an increase in inflation expectations.”
除了钻探石油，特朗普还没有详细的降价计划。主流经济学家并不认同他的个人信念，认为他提议的强势关税将给美国带来意外之财，他们警告说，这将刺激进一步的通货膨胀，相当于给美国家庭增税。彼得森国际经济研究所（Peterson Institute for International Economics）的一份报告估计，他的关税制度将给普通中等收入家庭带来每年 1700 美元的额外开支。而无党派研究机构牛津经济学估计，特朗普的关税、移民限制和延长减税政策的组合也可能会增加通货膨胀和减缓经济增长。牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家伯纳德-雅罗斯说，这些政策的直通线是 "通胀预期增加"。

Then there’s the budget deficit. Trump’s desire to renew his landmark 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act—estimated price tag: $4.6 trillion—and to further reduce corporate taxes doesn’t pencil out to a balanced budget in any way that he or his advisers have yet explained. Coupled with the upward pressure on interest rates that economists expect from his protectionist policies, Trump’s plans could exacerbate the country’s growing debt burden.
然后是预算赤字。特朗普希望续签其具有里程碑意义的《2017 年减税和就业法案》（Tax Cuts and Jobs Act）--预计价格为 4.6 万亿美元--并进一步降低企业税，但他或他的顾问们尚未对平衡预算做出任何解释。再加上经济学家预计他的保护主义政策会对利率造成上行压力，特朗普的计划可能会加剧该国日益沉重的债务负担。

In the end, however, Trump’s other positions could be enough to sway business leaders to his side. Harold Hamm, a Trump donor and the executive chairman of oil giant Continental Resources Inc., writes in an email: “There seems to be outright hostility to free markets in the Biden Administration. As a result, capital is parked on the sidelines. Why? Because of regulatory uncertainty and in some cases downright regulatory hostility toward certain sectors.” Hamm cites the pause Biden put on liquefied natural gas projects in January as one example. “When Trump is re-elected,” he predicts, “that capital that was parked on the sidelines will be unleashed once again.”
不过，最终特朗普的其他立场可能足以让商界领袖们动摇他的立场。特朗普的捐赠者、石油巨头大陆资源公司（Continental Resources Inc："拜登政府似乎完全敌视自由市场。因此，资本都在观望。为什么？因为监管的不确定性，在某些情况下，监管机构甚至对某些行业怀有敌意。哈姆以拜登 1 月份暂停液化天然气项目为例。"当特朗普再次当选时，"他预测道，"那些被搁置的资本将再次释放出来。

Corporate America is still adjusting to the likelihood of Trump’s return. Privately, many CEOs aren’t thrilled. “They can’t stand him,” says Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a Yale School of Management professor who runs a leadership institute for CEOs and speaks regularly with many top executives. Nevertheless, they recognize that a shotgun remarriage could be in the offing.
美国企业仍在适应特朗普回归的可能性。私下里，许多首席执行官并不高兴。"耶鲁大学管理学院教授杰弗里-索南菲尔德（Jeffrey Sonnenfeld）说："他们受不了他。尽管如此，他们也意识到，一场 "猎枪式 "的再婚可能正在酝酿之中。

On June 13, Trump met privately in Washington with dozens of the country’s most prominent chief executives, a group that included JPMorgan’s Dimon, Tim Cook of Apple and Brian Moynihan of Bank of America. The occasion was a “fireside chat” put on by the Business Roundtable, a nonpartisan lobbying group. The gathering brought Trump face-to-face with a number of corporate leaders with whom he’s long had a vexed relationship. Many were leery of him from the outset of his presidency; some spoke out publicly after the Jan. 6 attacks on the US Capitol by his supporters. Cook, Dimon and Moynihan all condemned the violence, with Cook calling it “a sad and shameful chapter in our nation’s history.” Yet just weeks after a Manhattan jury convicted Trump of 34 felonies, everyone dutifully assembled to commune with him—an unmistakable sign of the shifting power dynamic.
6 月 13 日，特朗普在华盛顿私下会见了数十位美国最著名的首席执行官，其中包括摩根大通的戴蒙、苹果公司的蒂姆-库克和美国银行的布莱恩-莫伊尼汉。这次聚会是由无党派游说团体商业圆桌会议（Business Roundtable）举办的一次 "炉边谈话"。这次聚会让特朗普与一些长期以来与他关系不和的企业领导人面对面。许多人在特朗普就任总统之初就对他心存芥蒂；一些人在 1 月 6 日他的支持者袭击美国国会大厦后公开发表了看法。库克、戴蒙和莫尼汉都谴责了这起暴力事件，库克称其为 "我们国家历史上可悲和可耻的一页"。然而，就在曼哈顿的一个陪审团判定特朗普犯有 34 项重罪的几周后，所有人都恪尽职守地聚集在一起与他交流--这是权力动态变化的一个明确无误的标志。

Trump is highly attuned to his standing with America’s corporate chieftains, and he vacillates between wanting their approval and hoping to bend them to his will. At Mar-a-Lago, when he’s presented with the July issue of Businessweek, featuring LVMH Louis Vuitton Moët Hennessy SE CEO Bernard Arnault on the cover, he refers to Arnault, one of the world’s richest men, as “an incredible guy, a friend of mine I think,” and asks whether this relationship had come up. (It hadn’t.)
特朗普非常重视自己在美国企业领袖心目中的地位，他既希望得到他们的认可，又希望让他们屈从于自己的意愿。在马阿拉歌，当他收到以路易威登酩悦轩尼诗集团（LVMH Louis Vuitton Moët Hennessy SE）首席执行官贝尔纳-阿尔诺（Bernard Arnault）为封面人物的《商业周刊》七月刊时，他提到了世界首富之一的阿尔诺，称他是 "一个不可思议的人，我想是我的一个朋友"，并询问是否提到过这种关系（没有）。(没有）。

Trump bristles when it’s pointed out to him that no Fortune 100 CEO has publicly contributed to his campaign. (Since then, Elon Musk has pledged financial support.) And he’s still smarting from CNBC’s coverage of the Business Roundtable meeting, which featured quotes from an anonymous CEO who slammed Trump as “remarkably meandering” and “all over the map.”
当有人向特朗普指出没有一位《财富》百强企业的首席执行官公开为他的竞选活动捐款时，特朗普很不高兴（此后，埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）承诺提供资金支持）。(自那以后，埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）承诺为他提供资金支持。）CNBC 对商业圆桌会议的报道让他至今仍耿耿于怀，报道中引用了一位匿名 CEO 的话，抨击特朗普 "非常迂回"、"无所适从"。

On the contrary, the meeting was “a lovefest,” Trump insists. “I will tell you when I’m not loved, because I feel that better than anybody,” he says. “CNBC called and apologized to me, because they found that we had a great meeting.” (A CNBC spokesperson writes: “We did not apologize. We spoke to the former president about keeping the lines of communication open.”)
相反，特朗普坚持认为，这次会晤是 "爱的盛宴"。"我会告诉你什么时候我不被爱，因为我比任何人都更能感受到这一点，"他说。"CNBC打电话向我道歉，因为他们发现我们的会面很愉快"。(CNBC 发言人写道："我们没有道歉。我们与前总统谈过保持沟通渠道畅通的问题。）

Trump says he reminded the assembled executives that in 2017 he slashed the corporate tax rate “from 39% to 21%” (actually from 35% to 21%) and vowed to push it lower still, to 20%. “They loved it, they were happy,” he recalls. He adds that he wants to cut the rate even lower than that: “I would like to get it down to 15.”
特朗普说，他提醒与会的高管们，2017 年，他将企业税率 "从 39% 降至 21%"（实际上是从 35% 降至 21%），并誓言将其进一步降至 20%。"他们很喜欢，很高兴，"他回忆道。他还说，他想把税率降得比这更低："我想降到 15%"。

But Trump is also aware that whatever “love” the CEOs might have expressed was ultimately driven by self-interest: They can read election polls like everyone else. “Whoever’s leading gets all the support they want,” he says. “I could have the personality of a shrimp, and everybody would come.”
但特朗普也知道，无论首席执行官们表达了怎样的 "爱"，最终都是出于自身利益的考虑：他们可以像其他人一样阅读选举民调。"谁领先，谁就能得到他们想要的所有支持，"他说。"我可以像虾一样有个性，每个人都会来"。

This wasn’t always the case. With Trump disgraced and seemingly finished in politics after his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election, the Republican business community was part of a coalition eager to anoint a new standard-bearer for the party. It began lavishing money and attention on a rising generation of business-friendly politicians, led by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, who has also served as co-CEO of the investment firm Carlyle Group Inc. But in 2024, DeSantis’ presidential campaign collapsed, Haley’s petered out, and Youngkin’s never took place. Business leaders were shocked and crestfallen as Trump cruised to the nomination.
情况并非总是如此。特朗普在努力推翻 2020 年总统大选后颜面尽失，似乎已无缘政坛，共和党商界于是加入了一个联盟，渴望为该党任命一位新的标杆人物。该联盟开始将资金和注意力投向新一代对商界友好的政治家，其中包括佛罗里达州州长罗恩-德桑蒂斯（Ron DeSantis）、前南卡罗来纳州州长尼基-黑利（Nikki Haley）和弗吉尼亚州州长格伦-扬金（Glenn Youngkin），后者还曾担任投资公司凯雷集团（Carlyle Group Inc.但在 2024 年，德桑蒂斯的总统竞选失败了，海莉的竞选也逐渐平息，而杨金的竞选则从未举行过。随着特朗普顺利获得提名，商界领袖们感到震惊和沮丧。

“Everyone read this wrong,” says Liam Donovan, a Republican business lobbyist. “There was a core assumption that Trump was finished. But DeSantis was never going to be the guy, nor was Haley. People saw an opportunity to turn the page, tried to make it happen, and it didn’t happen. The base wanted Trump.”
"共和党商业说客利亚姆-多诺万（Liam Donovan）说："每个人都看错了。"有一种核心假设认为特朗普已经完了。但德桑提斯和黑莉都不可能成为那个人。人们看到了翻篇的机会，试图让它发生，但它没有发生。基础选民想要特朗普"。

Trump famously carries grudges: At a conservative political conference last year, he pledged to deliver “retribution.” But asked at Mar-a-Lago whether he’ll go after CEOs he dislikes, he demurs. “I don’t have [plans for] retribution against anyone,” he says.
特朗普的记仇是出了名的：在去年的一次保守派政治会议上，他承诺要实施 "报复"。但在马阿拉歌（Mar-a-Lago）被问及他是否会对他不喜欢的首席执行官下手时，他却不以为然。"他说："我没有报复任何人的 [计划]。

He does rekindle long-running feuds with Meta Platforms Inc. CEO Mark Zuckerberg and Amazon.com Inc. founder and Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos. Bezos, whose newspaper kept a running tally of false claims Trump made while president (it reached 30,573), draws particular ire. Trump says Bezos has “done a great disservice to himself” and made “a lot of enemies” with his ownership of the Post.
他与 Meta Platforms Inc.首席执行官马克-扎克伯格（Mark Zuckerberg）和亚马逊公司（Amazon.com Inc.贝索斯的报纸对特朗普在担任总统期间的不实言论进行了统计（达到30573条），因此引起了特别的愤怒。特朗普说，贝索斯对《华盛顿邮报》的所有权 "对自己造成了极大的伤害"，并 "树敌无数"。

For all his corporate critics and enemies, Trump doesn’t lack support in the boardroom or on Wall Street. “The Trump economy was very good,” says Scott Bessent, CEO of Key Square Capital Management LLC and a top Trump donor. “It worked for people at the top and at the bottom. The market was good. Real wages increased. It was a very good time.”
尽管特朗普在企业界有很多批评者和敌人，但他在董事会或华尔街并不缺乏支持。"关键广场资本管理公司（Key Square Capital Management LLC）首席执行官斯科特-贝森特（Scott Bessent）说："特朗普的经济非常好。"它对高层和底层的人都有效。市场很好。实际工资增加了。这是一个非常好的时代。"

Other prominent CEOs who don’t identify as Trump partisans have also been praising his presidency. “Be honest,” Dimon said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January. “He was kind of right about NATO, kind of right about immigration. He grew the economy quite well. Tax reform worked. He was right about some of China. … He wasn’t wrong about some of these critical issues, and that’s why they’re voting for him.”
其他不以特朗普党派自居的知名首席执行官也对特朗普的总统任期大加赞赏。"戴蒙 1 月份在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛上说："说实话。"他在北约问题上是对的，在移民问题上是对的。他的经济增长相当不错。税制改革奏效了。他对中国的一些看法是正确的。......他在一些关键问题上没有错，这就是他们投票给他的原因。"

Trump relishes the compliment. He’s changed his view of the man he attacked on Truth Social last year as “Highly overrated Globalist Jamie Dimon” and now says he could envision Dimon, who’s thought to be contemplating a political career, as his secretary of the Treasury. “He is somebody that I would consider,” Trump says. (A spokesperson for Dimon declined to comment.)
特朗普对这种恭维津津乐道。他改变了对去年在 "真理社交 "上抨击他为 "被高估的全球主义者杰米-戴蒙 "的看法，现在他说，他可以设想让被认为正在考虑从政的戴蒙担任他的财政部长。"特朗普说："他会是我考虑的人选。(戴蒙的发言人拒绝发表评论）。

For all his periodic wrath toward business leaders, Trump appears eager to have them serve in a second administration. North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, a former tech CEO, made Trump’s short list for vice president and is likely to land in his cabinet. Bessent is also a candidate for Treasury secretary. Trump is even embracing CEOs who, not long ago, were considered possible challengers. “Glenn Youngkin is prime time,” he says in a post-interview aside. “I’d love to have him in my administration.” And Trump’s ultimate pick as running mate, JD Vance, was a venture capitalist for years.
尽管特朗普时常对商界领袖怒目而视，但他似乎渴望让他们在第二任政府中任职。北达科他州州长、前科技公司首席执行官道格-伯根姆（Doug Burgum）进入了特朗普的副总统候选名单，并有可能进入他的内阁。贝森特也是财政部长的候选人之一。特朗普甚至还接纳了一些不久前还被认为可能成为挑战者的首席执行官。"格伦-扬金（Glenn Youngkin）是黄金时段，"他在采访后的一旁说道。"我很希望他能加入我的政府。"而特朗普最终选定的竞选搭档 JD Vance，多年来一直是风险投资家。

Still, many chief executives feel trepidation about a Trump renaissance. Ken Chenault, the former chairman and CEO of American Express Co., says Trump’s threats have had a chilling effect on corporate leaders. “People are staying on the sidelines,” he says, “because they greatly fear that there will be retribution.” Chenault raises another example of that happening during Trump’s presidency: his opposition to the $85 billion AT&T-Time Warner merger and concerns he was trying to force a sale of CNN over displeasure with its coverage of his administration.
不过，许多首席执行官对特朗普的复兴仍心有余悸。美国运通公司前董事长兼首席执行官肯-切诺特（Ken Chenault）说，特朗普的威胁对企业领导人产生了寒蝉效应。他说："人们保持观望，""因为他们非常担心会遭到报复。"切诺特举出了特朗普担任总统期间发生的另一个例子：他反对美国电话电报公司与时代华纳公司（Time Warner）价值 850 亿美元的合并案，以及他因不满美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）对其政府的报道而试图强行出售该公司的担忧。

Current CEOs, Chenault says, are terrified of winding up in Trump’s crosshairs: “The fear is real.”
切诺特说，现任首席执行官们都很害怕被特朗普盯上："这种恐惧是真实存在的"。

As president, Trump shattered the long-standing Republican orthodoxy of favoring free trade. He says he’ll go further if reelected. At Mar-a-Lago he offers an impassioned defense of US tariffs—he’s been studying McKinley, dubbing him “the Tariff King”—to make it clear he intends to ratchet up levies not just on China but on the European Union, too.
作为总统，特朗普打破了共和党长期以来支持自由贸易的正统观念。他说，如果连任，他将更进一步。在马阿拉歌，他慷慨激昂地为美国关税辩护--他一直在研究麦金利，称他为 "关税之王"--以表明他不仅要对中国，还要对欧盟加大征税力度。

“McKinley made this country rich,” Trump says. “He was the most underrated president.” In Trump’s reading of history, McKinley’s successors squandered his legacy on costly government programs such as the New Deal (“the whole thing with the parks and the dams”) and unjustly poisoned an important tool for economic statecraft. “I can’t believe how many people are negative on tariffs that are actually smart,” Trump says. “Man, is it good for negotiation. I’ve had guys, I’ve had countries that were potentially extremely hostile coming to me and saying, ‘Sir, please stop with the tariff stuff.’”
"麦金利让这个国家变得富裕，"特朗普说。"他是最被低估的总统"。在特朗普的历史解读中，麦金利的继任者将他的遗产浪费在了新政（"公园和水坝的整个事情"）等耗资巨大的政府项目上，并不公正地毒害了一个重要的经济国策工具。"特朗普说："我简直不敢相信，有多少人对关税持否定态度，而他们其实是聪明人。"天啊，这对谈判有好处。我曾让一些人、一些可能极具敌意的国家来找我，说'先生，请停止关税这一套'。"

To the consternation of many business and consumer groups, Biden maintained Trump’s tariffs on China, even increasing ones on steel, aluminum, semiconductors, electric vehicles, batteries and other goods. “This is going to add price inflation across the board, all in the name of ‘tough guy’ election-year politics,” Yaël Ossowski, deputy director of the Consumer Choice Center, a nonpartisan advocacy group, said in May.
令许多企业和消费者团体感到不安的是，拜登维持了特朗普对中国的关税，甚至增加了对钢铁、铝、半导体、电动汽车、电池和其他商品的关税。无党派权益组织 "消费者选择中心"（Consumer Choice Center）副主任雅埃尔-奥索斯基（Yaël Ossowski）5月表示："这将全面加剧物价上涨，而这一切都是以'硬汉'选举年政治为名。

In Trumpworld, however, Biden’s actions are seen as validation that Trump was right—and his Democratic critics were wrong—about the threat China poses to the US economy and security. Trump is eager to prescribe more of the same medicine, including to European allies. In addition to targeting China for new tariffs of anywhere from 60% to 100%, he says he’d impose a 10% across-the-board tariff on imports from other countries, citing a familiar litany of complaints about foreign countries not buying enough US goods.
然而，在特朗普的世界里，拜登的行动被视为证明了关于中国对美国经济和安全构成的威胁，特朗普是正确的，而他的民主党批评者是错误的。特朗普急于开出更多同样的药方，包括对欧洲盟友。除了针对中国征收60%至100%的新关税外，他还表示将对从其他国家进口的商品全面征收10%的关税，并列举了一连串大家耳熟能详的抱怨外国没有购买足够的美国商品的理由。

“The ‘European Union’ sounds so lovely,” Trump says. “We love Scotland and Germany. We love all these places. But once you get past that, they treat us violently.” He mentions reluctance in Europe to import US automobiles and agricultural products as key drivers of the more than $200 billion trade deficit, a statistic he considers a critical measure of economic fairness.
"'欧盟'听起来真可爱，"特朗普说。"我们爱苏格兰和德国。我们爱所有这些地方。但一旦你忘了这一点，他们就会粗暴地对待我们"。他提到，欧洲不愿进口美国汽车和农产品是造成2000多亿美元贸易逆差的主要原因，他认为这一数据是衡量经济公平性的重要标准。

As with so much else, Trump views trade in personal terms. He speaks of it as though it were a private negotiation between himself and recalcitrant foreign leaders who understand full well that they’re exploiting the US and therefore must be curbed. He’s animated as he recounts a conversation with Angela Merkel, then Germany’s chancellor. “Angela, how many Fords or how many Chevrolets are there in the middle of Munich right now?” he remembers asking.
与其他许多事情一样，特朗普也从个人角度看待贸易问题。他在谈到贸易问题时，仿佛这是他与顽固不化的外国领导人之间的私人谈判，这些领导人清楚地知道他们在剥削美国，因此必须加以遏制。他生动地讲述了与时任德国总理的安吉拉-默克尔的一次谈话。"安吉拉，现在慕尼黑市中心有多少辆福特或雪佛兰？

He mimics Merkel’s German accent in reply: “Oh, I do not believe many.”
他模仿默克尔的德国口音回答道："哦，我不相信很多人"

“How about none?” he says he shot back.
"没有怎么样？"他说他回击道。

Satisfied that he’s illustrated his point, Trump turns back to the Businessweek reporters. “They treat us very badly,” he says. “But I was changing all of that and that culture.” Return him to the White House, he suggests, and he’ll finish the job.
特朗普很满意自己的观点，回头对《商业周刊》的记者们说。"他们对我们非常不好，"他说。"但我正在改变这一切和这种文化"。他建议，把他送回白宫，他会完成这项工作。

Trump’s transactional view of foreign policy and his desire to “win” every deal could have ramifications around the globe—and even rupture US alliances. Asked about America’s commitment to defending Taiwan from China, which views the Asian democracy as a breakaway province, Trump makes it clear that, despite recent bipartisan support for Taiwan, he’s at best lukewarm about standing up to Chinese aggression. Part of his skepticism is grounded in economic resentment. “Taiwan took our chip business from us,” he says. “I mean, how stupid are we? They took all of our chip business. They’re immensely wealthy.” What he wants is for Taiwan to pay the US for protection. “I don’t think we’re any different from an insurance policy. Why? Why are we doing this?” he asks.
特朗普对外交政策的交易观以及他想 "赢得 "每一笔交易的愿望可能会对全球产生影响，甚至会破坏美国的盟友关系。在被问及美国是否承诺保卫台湾不受中国侵犯时，特朗普明确表示，尽管最近两党都支持台湾，但他最多也只是对抵制中国侵略持冷淡态度。他的怀疑部分源于对经济的不满。"台湾抢走了我们的芯片业务，"他说。"我是说，我们有多蠢？他们抢走了我们所有的芯片业务。他们非常富有。他希望台湾向美国支付保护费。"我不认为我们和保险单有什么区别。为什么？我们为什么要这么做？"他问道。

Another factor driving his skepticism is what he regards as the practical difficulty of defending a small island on the other side of the globe. “Taiwan is 9,500 miles away,” he says. “It’s 68 miles away from China.” Abandoning the commitment to Taiwan would represent a dramatic shift in US foreign policy—as significant as halting support for Ukraine. But Trump sounds ready to radically alter the terms of these relationships.
促使他持怀疑态度的另一个因素是，他认为保卫地球另一端的一个小岛存在实际困难。"他说："台湾在 9500 英里之外。"它距离中国 68 英里"。放弃对台湾的承诺将意味着美国外交政策的巨大转变--其意义不亚于停止对乌克兰的支持。但特朗普似乎已经准备好从根本上改变这些关系的条款。

His views about Saudi Arabia, by contrast, are more amicable. He says he’s spoken to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud within the past six months, though he declines to elaborate on the nature and frequency of their talks. Asked if he worries that increasing US oil and gas production would upset the Saudis, who wish to maintain their primacy in energy, Trump replies that he doesn’t think so, pointing once more to a personal relationship. “He likes me, I like him,” he says of the crown prince. “They’re always going to need protection … they’re not naturally protected.” He adds: “I’ll always protect them.”
相比之下，他对沙特阿拉伯的看法更为友好。他说，在过去六个月里，他与王储穆罕默德-本-萨勒曼-沙特（Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud）进行了交谈，但他拒绝详细说明会谈的性质和频率。当被问及是否担心美国石油和天然气产量的增加会让希望保持能源霸主地位的沙特感到不安时，特朗普回答说他不这么认为，并再次指出了双方的私人关系。"他谈到王储时说："他喜欢我，我也喜欢他。"他们总是需要保护......他们并不是天生就受到保护"。他补充道："我会一直保护他们"。

Trump blames Biden and former President Barack Obama for eroding US relations with Saudi Arabia, saying they pushed the country toward a key adversary. “They’re not with us anymore,” he says. “They’re with China. But they don’t want to be with China. They want to be with us.”
特朗普指责拜登和前总统巴拉克-奥巴马侵蚀了美国与沙特阿拉伯的关系，称他们把美国推向了一个重要的对手。"他们不再和我们在一起了，"他说。"他们和中国在一起。但他们不想和中国在一起。他们想和我们在一起。

He has reasons beyond American foreign policy for favoring closer ties with the Saudis. Hundreds of millions of dollars are at stake for him. On July 1 the Trump Organization and DAR Global announced plans to build a Trump Tower and luxury hotel in Jeddah. An investment fund founded by his son-in-law Jared Kushner has also taken a $2 billion investment from the Saudi government’s wealth fund.
除了美国外交政策之外，他还有其他原因支持与沙特建立更密切的关系。这关系到他数亿美元的利益。7 月 1 日，特朗普组织和 DAR Global 宣布了在吉达建造特朗普大厦和豪华酒店的计划。他的女婿贾里德-库什纳（Jared Kushner）创立的投资基金也从沙特政府的财富基金中获得了 20 亿美元的投资。

Western allies, now familiar with Trump’s personal and mercurial approach to foreign policy, are taking extensive measures to prepare for his possible return to the White House. These include increasing defense spending, transferring control of military aid for Ukraine to NATO, racing to improve relationships with Trump’s advisers and affiliated think tanks, and reaching out to Republican governors and thought leaders to divine his intentions. At a NATO summit in Washington, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged allies to act quickly to help his country repel Russia’s invasion instead of waiting for the election results in November to decide what to do.
西方盟国现已熟悉了特朗普在外交政策上的个人作风和反复无常的做法，正在采取广泛措施，为他可能重返白宫做好准备。这些措施包括增加国防开支，将对乌克兰军事援助的控制权移交给北约，竞相改善与特朗普顾问和下属智库的关系，并与共和党州长和思想领袖接触，以了解他的意图。在华盛顿举行的北约峰会上，乌克兰总统沃洛德梅尔-泽连斯基（Volodymyr Zelenskiy）敦促盟国迅速采取行动，帮助乌克兰击退俄罗斯的入侵，而不是等到11月的选举结果出来后再决定如何行动。

Dan Caldwell, a policy adviser at the right-leaning think tank Defense Priorities, says that “it’s actually in Europe’s interest to ‘America-proof’ their defense and to start operating on the assumption that the United States has other, more urgent national security priorities, and domestic ones as well.”
右倾智库 "防务优先"（Defense Priorities）的政策顾问丹-考德威尔（Dan Caldwell）说："'防备美国'实际上符合欧洲的利益，欧洲应该开始假定美国还有其他更紧迫的国家安全优先事项以及国内优先事项。

During his presidency and afterward, Trump frequently took aim at the US tech industry. For much of that time, Twitter (now X) was his platform of choice for venting displeasure with companies such as Facebook, Google and Twitter itself, pre-Elon Musk. In 2020 he signed an executive order reducing legal protections for social media platforms under Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act of 1996. And his government launched antitrust probes into Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google—actions carried on and expanded under Biden.
在担任总统期间和之后，特朗普经常将矛头对准美国科技行业。在大部分时间里，推特（现在的 X）是他发泄对 Facebook、谷歌和推特本身（埃隆-马斯克之前）等公司不满的首选平台。2020 年，他签署了一项行政命令，减少了 1996 年《通信体面法》第 230 条对社交媒体平台的法律保护。他的政府还对亚马逊、苹果、脸书和谷歌发起了反垄断调查，这些行动在拜登执政期间得到了延续和扩大。

Trump’s attacks on Big Tech have never been ironclad statements of policy or principle, exactly. Not unlike his tariff proposals, they’ve served at least as much as leverage plays—his staking out negotiating positions that companies and CEOs must respond to. The central complaint he and Republicans used to make was that tech companies were biased against conservatives—shadow-banning them, deplatforming them and (allegedly) suppressing right-leaning sources in search results. Today, Trump’s focus is on a more broadly appealing charge: that out-of-control tech companies are harming children—to the point, even, of causing a nationwide epidemic of suicides. “They have become too big, too powerful,” he argues. “They’re having a huge negative impact on, especially, young people.”
确切地说，特朗普对大科技公司的攻击从来都不是铁板一块的政策或原则声明。与他的关税提案不同的是，这些提案至少起到了杠杆作用--他表明了公司和首席执行官必须回应的谈判立场。他和共和党人曾经抱怨的核心问题是，科技公司对保守派有偏见--对他们进行影子封杀、去平台化，以及（据称）在搜索结果中压制右倾消息来源。如今，特朗普的焦点集中在一个更具广泛吸引力的指控上：失控的科技公司正在伤害儿童，甚至导致全国范围内自杀流行。"他认为："它们变得太大、太强大了。"它们正在对尤其是年轻人产生巨大的负面影响。"

This position may stem from Trump’s understanding of how televised drama can shape public opinion. In February, during a Senate hearing of tech executives, Zuckerberg was effectively bullied into apologizing to families in the audience who said social media abuse had driven their children to suicide. It was an arresting moment, and Trump has harnessed the charge for his campaign. “I don’t want them destroying our youth,” he says of the social media companies. “You see what they’re doing—including, even, suicides.”
这一立场可能源于特朗普对电视戏剧如何塑造公众舆论的理解。今年 2 月，在参议院举行的科技高管听证会上，扎克伯格受到了有效的威逼，不得不向听众中称社交媒体滥用导致其子女自杀的家庭道歉。这是一个令人震惊的时刻，特朗普在竞选中利用了这一指控。"他在谈到社交媒体公司时说："我不希望他们毁掉我们的年轻人。"你看到他们在做什么了吧，甚至包括自杀。

Moments later, however, he’s defending many of these same platforms as vital bulwarks against Chinese technological supremacy. Trump wants to personally dominate the US companies, but he doesn’t want foreign competitors replacing them. “I respect them greatly,” he insists of the companies he was just bashing. “If you go after them very violently, you can destroy them. I don’t want to destroy them.”
然而，片刻之后，他又为许多同样的平台辩护，认为它们是抵御中国技术优势的重要堡垒。特朗普想亲自主导美国公司，但他不希望外国竞争者取而代之。"我非常尊重它们，"他在谈到自己刚刚抨击过的公司时坚称。"如果你对它们穷追猛打，就能摧毁它们。我不想摧毁它们。"

At Mar-a-Lago, the one exception to his claim to not want to harm US tech companies, and to privilege domestic ones over foreign ones, is TikTok. Discussing his recent embrace of the Chinese-owned social media platform, where he’s already quite popular, Trump mentions that banning it in the US would benefit a company and a CEO he has no desire to reward. “Now [that] I’m thinking about it, I’m for TikTok, because you need competition,” he says. “If you don’t have TikTok, you have Facebook and Instagram—and that’s, you know, that’s Zuckerberg.” It’s an outcome he won’t abide. He’s still stung by Facebook’s decision to bar him indefinitely in the wake of the Jan. 6 attacks. “All of a sudden,” Trump grouses, “I went from No. 1 to having nobody.”
在马阿拉歌，特朗普声称不想伤害美国的科技公司，并让国内公司优先于外国公司，但 TikTok 是个例外。在谈到他最近拥护的中国社交媒体平台时，特朗普提到，在美国禁止TikTok将有利于一家他无意奖励的公司和一位首席执行官。"他说："现在我想起来了，我支持 TikTok，因为你需要竞争。"如果没有 TikTok，就只有 Facebook 和 Instagram，这就是扎克伯格"。这是他无法接受的结果。在 1 月 6 日的袭击事件发生后，Facebook 决定无限期禁止他访问 Facebook，这让他仍然感到痛苦。"突然之间，"特朗普抱怨道，"我从第一名变成了无名小卒。"

His reversal on cryptocurrency has been marked by similar dynamics. Not long ago he criticized Bitcoin as a “scam” and a “disaster waiting to happen.” Now he says it and other cryptocurrencies should be “made in the USA.” He frames this about-face as a practical necessity. “If we don’t do it, China is going to figure it out, and China’s going to have it—or somebody else,” he says.
他在加密货币问题上的反转也有类似的动力。不久前，他批评比特币是 "骗局 "和 "等待发生的灾难"。现在，他说比特币和其他加密货币应该 "美国制造"。他将这一转变归结为现实的需要。"他说："如果我们不这样做，中国就会想出办法来，中国就会拥有它，或者其他人。

Not coincidentally, the crypto industry—spurned by the Democratic Party, brimming with cash and eager for friends in Washington—has now found its way to Trump. “Thanks largely to the actions of the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Biden administration has stumbled into becoming anti-crypto,” says Justin Slaughter, policy director at the crypto-focused investment firm Paradigm. “Given that about 20% of Democrats own crypto, per polling, and its ownership skews young and non-White, this was politically unwise.” Trump has moved to fill the void, declaring in a May speech that he would “stop Joe Biden’s crusade to crush crypto.” The following month he reaped the benefits, raising money from Bitcoin miners at a Mar-a-Lago fundraiser. Trump’s campaign then announced it would “build a crypto army,” and it now accepts crypto contributions.
无独有偶，被民主党唾弃、资金充裕、渴望在华盛顿交朋友的加密货币行业现在也找到了特朗普。"以加密货币为重点的投资公司 Paradigm 的政策主管贾斯汀-斯劳特（Justin Slaughter）说："主要由于证券交易委员会的行动，拜登政府已经跌跌撞撞地成为了反加密货币的政府。"考虑到根据民意调查，大约 20% 的民主党人拥有加密货币，而且其拥有者偏向于年轻人和非白人，这在政治上是不明智的。"特朗普已经开始填补这一空白，他在5月的一次演讲中宣称，他将 "阻止乔-拜登讨伐加密货币的行动"。次月，他收获颇丰，在马阿拉歌筹款会上从比特币矿工那里筹到了钱。特朗普的竞选团队随后宣布将 "建立一支加密货币军队"，现在它接受加密货币捐款。

Read more: The ‘Trump Trade’ Is Back. Here’s What It Means for Investors
更多信息特朗普贸易 "卷土重来。这对投资者意味着什么

Some in Silicon Valley have learned that the best way to get Trump to alter his position on something is to appeal to him directly. That was certainly the case for Tim Cook. In 2019, Apple Inc. looked set to be a victim of Trump’s trade war with China, with billions of dollars at stake, as the president announced 25% import tariffs. He then publicly rejected Apple’s request for an exclusion. “Apple will not be given Tariff waiver, or relief, for Mac Pro parts that are made in China,” he wrote on Twitter. “Make them in the USA, no Tariffs!”
硅谷的一些人已经明白，要让特朗普改变对某些事情的立场，最好的办法就是直接向他发出呼吁。蒂姆-库克无疑就是如此。2019 年，随着特朗普总统宣布征收 25% 的进口关税，苹果公司看起来将成为特朗普对华贸易战的牺牲品，数十亿美元的利益将受到威胁。随后，他公开拒绝了苹果公司的豁免请求。"他在推特上写道："对于中国制造的 Mac Pro 部件，苹果公司不会获得关税豁免或减免。"美国制造，没有关税！"

At Mar-a-Lago, Trump speaks fondly of Cook and reveals how Apple’s CEO persuaded him to relent. He recalls Cook reaching out privately and asking, “Could I come in and see you?” Trump appreciated the gesture of respect from the head of what at the time was the world’s most valuable company. “That’s impressive,” Trump says. “I said, ‘Yeah, come in.’” Trump remembers that Cook was straightforward. “He said to me, ‘I need help, you have tariffs of 25% and 50% [on Apple products imported from China],’” he recalls. “He said, ‘It would really hurt our business. It would destroy our business, potentially.’” (An Apple spokesperson declined to comment.)
在 Mar-a-Lago，特朗普深情地谈到了库克，并透露了苹果公司首席执行官是如何说服他松口的。他回忆说，库克曾私下主动问他："我能进来看看你吗？特朗普对这位当时全球最有价值公司的掌门人做出的尊重姿态表示赞赏。"这令人印象深刻，"特朗普说。"我说，'好的，请进'。"特朗普记得，库克很直接。"他对我说，'我需要帮助，你们（对从中国进口的苹果产品）征收 25% 和 50% 的关税，'"他回忆道。"他说，'这真的会损害我们的业务。这可能会毁掉我们的业务。(苹果公司发言人拒绝发表评论）。

Trump wasn’t looking to do that—mainly, he wanted to demonstrate that he could bring manufacturing jobs back to the US, as he’d promised to do. In his telling, he prevailed upon Cook to expand domestic production. “I said, ‘I’m gonna do something for you guys,’” Trump recalls, “‘but you have to build in this country.’” Four months later, Apple announced it was beginning construction on a campus in Austin. The press release quoted Cook saying: “Building the Mac Pro, Apple’s most powerful device ever, in Austin is both a point of pride and a testament to the enduring power of American ingenuity.” Cook then gifted Trump a $5,999 Mac Pro, one of the first made at the Texas factory.
特朗普并不想这么做，主要是想证明他能像自己承诺的那样，把制造业工作带回美国。在他的讲述中，他说服库克扩大国内生产。"特朗普回忆说："我说，'我会为你们做点什么'，'但你们必须在国内生产'。四个月后，苹果公司宣布开始在奥斯汀建设园区。新闻稿援引库克的话说"在奥斯汀建造苹果公司有史以来功能最强大的设备 Mac Pro，既是一种骄傲，也证明了美国独创性的持久力量"。库克随后赠送给特朗普一台价值 5999 美元的 Mac Pro，这是德克萨斯州工厂生产的首批产品之一。

Had Trump forced Cook’s hand? Doubtful. Apple had originally announced a year earlier that it would invest $1 billion in a new Austin campus, and Mac Pros had been assembled at existing Texas facilities since the Obama era. Nevertheless, the episode registered as a positive for Trump and established Cook at the opposite end of his personal CEO continuum from Zuckerberg. It also created a potential road map for how tech CEOs might navigate a second Trump term.
是特朗普逼库克出手的吗？值得怀疑。苹果公司早在一年前就宣布将投资 10 亿美元在奥斯汀新建一个园区，而 Mac Pro 自奥巴马时代起就一直在德克萨斯州的现有工厂组装。尽管如此，这一事件对特朗普来说仍是一个利好消息，并使库克与扎克伯格站在了个人首席执行官的对立面。这也为科技公司的首席执行官们如何应对特朗普的第二个任期提供了一个潜在的路线图。

“I found him to be a very good businessman,” he says of Cook.
"我发现他是一个非常出色的商人，"他这样评价库克。

What Trump thinks about American businesses and the people who run them suddenly matters more than ever. So do his views on the Fed, the economy and every important issue around the globe.
特朗普对美国企业和企业经营者的看法突然变得比以往任何时候都重要。他对美联储、经济和全球所有重要问题的看法也同样重要。

The shock of Biden’s faltering debate performance on June 27 supercharged doubts about the president’s cognitive health and plunged the Democratic Party into an existential crisis. It also gave Trump a measurable lead in many polls—and, along with narrowly surviving the assassination attempt, may have amplified his already formidable sense of political inviolability.
6 月 27 日，拜登在辩论中的表现令人震惊，加剧了人们对总统认知健康的怀疑，使民主党陷入生存危机。这也让特朗普在许多民调中取得了可观的领先优势，再加上在暗杀企图中侥幸生还，这可能增强了他本已强大的政治不可侵犯感。

“The debate certainly had a big impact,” he says in a July 9 follow-up call, four days before the shooting. “A lot of the states are just starting now to come out, and it shows a very big swing.” Asked whether Biden should drop out of the race, he says, “That’s a decision he has to make. But I do think our country is in great danger whether he stays in or drops out.” On Vice President Kamala Harris, considered a likely alternative at the top of a Democratic ticket, Trump says, “I don’t think it would make much difference. I would define her in a very similar [way] that I define him.” With months to go before Election Day, there’s plenty of time for the dynamics of the race to change.
"辩论肯定会产生很大的影响，"他在 7 月 9 日的后续电话中说，当时距离枪击案发生还有四天。"很多州的选情现在才刚刚开始，显示出很大的摇摆"。当被问及拜登是否应该退出竞选时，他说："这是他必须做出的决定。但我确实认为，无论他继续参选还是退出，我们的国家都将面临巨大危险。副总统卡马拉-哈里斯（Kamala Harris）被认为是民主党候选人名单上最有可能的替代人选，对此特朗普说："我认为这不会有太大区别。我对她的定义与我对他的定义非常相似"。距离选举日还有几个月的时间，竞选态势有足够的时间发生变化。

But even back at Mar-a-Lago, a few days before Biden’s debate stumble, Trump seemed to be riding this heightened sense of good fortune. When the resort’s longtime managing director dropped by during the conversation, Trump noted with pride that the club would increase its initiation fee from $700,000 to $1 million in October, with four new slots open—a sign, presumably, of the increased value of proximity to potentially the next commander-in-chief.
但即使是在拜登辩论失利的前几天，在马阿拉歌（Mar-a-Lago），特朗普似乎也在乘胜追击。当度假村的长期常务董事在谈话期间路过这里时，特朗普自豪地指出，俱乐部将在 10 月份把入会费从 70 万美元提高到 100 万美元，并将开放四个新的名额--这大概是下一任总司令附近价值增加的标志。

And at the conclusion of our interview, Trump, boastful to the very end, tried to send Businessweek off with that new MAGA hat (“Trump Was Right About Everything”). We politely declined. That’s ultimately for the voters to decide.
采访结束时，特朗普一直夸夸其谈，试图用那顶新的 MAGA 帽子（"特朗普什么都是对的"）为《商业周刊》送行。我们婉言谢绝了。这最终要由选民来决定。